TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.
Vol.5 Issue 1 January 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Companies
with the smallest market capitalizations produce the highest returns.
As companies get bigger, returns go down until you get to the
blue chips, which produce the lowest returns of all."
Paul Woods
CEO & President, Odyssey Advisors .
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- California
Dreaming: Striking Gold in the
World's 8th Largest Economy. By Natalie Pace.
- Beyond Kyoto: Convincing Capitalists
to Buy Clean Air. Q&A with
Dr. Richard Sandor, the Chairman and founder of the Chicago
Climate Exchange. By Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com.
- The Subprime Housing Crisis.
By Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economics.
- Oil and Gas Scams: Common Red Flags and Steps You Can Take to
Protect Yourself. By the Securities and Exchange Commission.
- 2008 Company of the Year. Natalie Pace chats with Premium Subscribers
on 2008, green, how to get started on the path to wise
investing and more!
- Citigroup, WaMu and HSBC:
The Financials Swallow a Bitter Pill. By Kelley Wright,
managing editor of Investment Quality Trends.
- Attract the People You Want
and Repel the People You Don't Want.
By Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- Twenty Tax Tips for Year-End 2007.
By Rande Spiegelman, vice president, financial planning,
Schwab Center for Financial Research.
- FAQs: Is Natalie just another Suze Orman?
Q&A with
Natalie Pace on what differentiates NataliePace.com from
the other financial news and information sources.
- Are You Gambling With Your Nest Egg -- Without
Even Knowing It? By
Natalie Pace. Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks list.
- NataliePace.com Calendar:
Don't Miss the Get Rich and EnRich Retreat featuring Natalie
Pace, Michael Bernard Beckwith and Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith
on January 2-5, 2008. Are you gambling with your nest
egg? In a rare opportunity that you must jump on NOW,
you are invited to set up the foundation to your house
of wealth with Natalie Pace and some of the most respected
business and spiritual leaders on the North American continent.
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The Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel
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California Dreaming: Striking Gold in the World’s
8th Largest Economy.
by Natalie
Pace.
The market victory
of the Nasdaq, which crushed the returns of the S&P500 and Dow
Jones Industrial Average in 2007, is largely a tale of one state
– the golden state of California.
General
Stock Market Performance
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 12.14.2007
|
Gains
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,549.33
|
+8.6%
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,713.50
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+12%
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S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,496.45
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+5.6%
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Broadband connected
households to the Internet, and shoppers shifted into cyber consumers,
buying everything from music on Apple iTunes (a California based
company), to business listings from Google (another California based
company) to long distance from Skype, an eBay company, which is
also California based. As a result, many California companies are
sitting pretty with no or low debt and a war chest of capital, compared
to many of the Dow Jones Industrial component companies that are
strapped with debt. As we enter a period of increasing borrowing
costs and subsequently lower merger and acquisition activity, cash
is king and those companies that are positioned well have a strong
advantage in the global marketplace.
NASDAQ
vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Company
|
Debt/Equity Ratio
|
Cash on Hand
|
2007 Returns (to date)
|
Current Price to Earnings
Ratio
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Apple
|
0. No debt.
|
$15.4 billion
|
+125%
|
50.60
|
Google
|
0. No debt.
|
$13.1 billion
|
+50%
|
54.80
|
eBay
|
0. No debt.
|
$4.4 billion
|
+14%
|
336.80
|
Boeing
|
1.34
|
$12.2 billion
|
+1%
|
17.30
|
AT&T
|
.55
|
$2.7 billion
|
+16%
|
21.60
|
CAT
|
3.19
|
$910 million
|
+19%
|
14.00
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(Nasdaq
companies are highlighted in blue.
Dow
companies are listed in red.)
Caterpillar,
one of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Components, has less than a billion
in cash on hand, with almost $5 billion in debt due within one year
and $17 billion due in the coming years. Caterpillar’s liability
for postemployment benefits (health care and pension plans) rang
up to almost $6 billion. That equals a stunning $28 billion in debt
in a company that makes machinery for the construction business.
With new construction screeching to a halt in the U.S., this is
the kind of portfolio pruning that investors need to attend to.
So, as we enter
2008, a year where GDP growth is expected to slow, it could pay
to continue to trim back on your legacy DOW holdings and weight
toward the new Blue Chip companies. As one of our favorite money
managers, Paul Woods, the CEO of Odyssey Advisors, says, "Companies
with the smallest market capitalizations produce the highest returns.
As companies get bigger, returns go down until you get to the blue
chips, which produce the lowest returns of all."
Of course, the
larger companies are also the ones that withstand market downturns,
providing stability to your nest egg. However, the tides have shifted
from companies that have been around at the turn of the century
to those that are redefining the world we live in. The Blue Chips
of the past are not the stabilizing force that they used to be,
when you consider the amount of money that has been lost in companies
like General Motors, which reported another net loss of $39 billion
in the 3rd quarter of 2007, on November 7, 2007.
So, this month,
rather than looking for a new hot company to invest in, why not
take your nest egg into the examining room for a check up? While
anchoring your portfolio with the hefty Googles and Apples of the
world could be more beneficial than relying on Caterpillar and General
Motors for stability, both Apple and Google are trading for a high
price to earnings ratio and at an all-time high stock price. If
you don’t already own these companies, consider that a sinking tide
in the stock market might ground even the speedboats like Apple
and Google, meaning you could find a better opportunity for buying
later in 2008. It might pay to have a stock shopping list on hand,
rather than be too eager to buy in now.
Did you know
that corporations like Google and Apple have made California the
eighth largest economy in the world? California has become its own
country by economic standards. Investors are a large part of that
change. The California "Governator" Arnold Schwarzenegger
trades with the world’s most powerful leaders, but it was everyday
investors who demanded to own a piece of Google, making it one of
the largest corporations in the world, with a market value of $219
billion. (Exxon Mobil is the world’s largest corporation, with a
market capitalization of $513 billion.)
The
World’s Largest Economies (by GDP, 2006)
Source:
Milken
Institute
United States
($13.24 trillion)
Japan
($4.37 trillion)
Germany
($290 trillion)
China
($2.63 trillion)
United
Kingdom ($2.37 trillion)
France
($2.23 trillion)
Italy
($1.85 trillion)
California
($1.73 trillion)
Google became
a $224 billion company because it was simply the best search engine,
with an easy platform for businesses to advertise on. People love
it, and they wanted to own it. At the same time, Altria (Wall Street’s
name for Philip Morris) has remained a $164 billion dollar company
simply by being one of the top holdings in the most popular mutual
funds. Many investors own Philip Morris (stock symbol MO) without
even knowing it. Ever wonder how Exxon Mobil became worth half a
trillion dollars? With your retirement money (those mutual funds
that you buy without knowing what you own). Imagine how fast our
world would change if you took your money out of oil, war and cigarettes
(death) and invested in clean technology and renewable energy. And
by the way, you will be making MORE money when you do that. Clean
energy was the top performing industry on Wall Street in the 1st
and the 3rd quarters of 2007 — above energy! Our 2007 Company of
the Year Suntech Power Holdings (symbol: STP), a solar energy corporation
based out of China, more than doubled in share price.
With the entire
world, led by Europe, signing on to alternative energy and reducing
the carbon footprint, clean energy is the wave of tomorrow. You
can be someone who paves the path, reaps the rewards AND changes
the world — a win*win*win situation.
So, when beautifying
your bottom line for a fiscally fit New Year, be sure to peek into
the companies that you hold within your mutual funds. It’s
as easy as two clicks on your computer. Simply:
HOW TO
SEE WHAT COMPANIES YOU OWN
- Go to NataliePace.com
- Enter the
5-letter symbol of the mutual fund in the Company Research box
(located near the bottom of the middle column)
- This will
take you to a stock information page
- Click on
Top Holdings
- This year,
getting smart about your investments could be a new lease on life
– for your bottom line and for our world!
It’s not
too late to come to the January 2008 retreat in Santa Monica California,
where you will learn how to rebalance your portfolio and options
for investing in corporations that are making money by making our
world a better place. Escape the snow! Play the Billionaire game,
meet money managers and consultants who have handled billions of
dollars in deals and investments and learn how to protect and grow
your nest egg – all in a sunny, beachfront setting in Santa Monica,
California! Set up the year and your future right! For more information,
go to NataliePace.com. Click on the Get
Rich and Enrich banner ad.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
Beyond
Kyoto: Convincing Capitalists to Buy Clean Air.
by Natalie
Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com
Q&A
with Dr. Richard Sandor, the Chairman and founder of the Chicago
Climate Exchange.
A reprint from
NataliePace.com, vol. 1, issue 50.
The
Kyoto Protocol didn’t fail. It became a spark plug for a market
place solution that has been alive and growing since 2000. The Chicago
Climate Exchange (CCX), which launched in 2000 with a grant from
the Joyce Foundation, is North America's only and the world's first
global marketplace for integrating voluntary legally binding emissions
reductions with emissions trading and offsets for all six greenhouse
gases. Time magazine has called Dr. Richard L. Sandor, the founder,
Chairman and CEO of CCX, a Hero of the Planet and the "father of
carbon trading." Dr. Sandor is an economist and financial innovator
who has convinced hundreds of corporations and cities around the
world to voluntarily reduce pollution and to promote a clean, healthy
atmosphere through "offsetting" behavior, such as reforesting Brazilian
rain forest.
CCX emitting
Members make a voluntary but legally binding commitment to meet
annual greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Those who reduce
below the targets have surplus allowances to sell or bank; those
who emit above the targets comply by purchasing CCX Carbon Financial
Instrument® (CFI™) contracts. Current member corporations
include: Amtrak, Ford Motor Company, Knoll, Rolls-Royce, Dow Corning,
Dupont, Motorola, Sony, Bank of America, Bayer, the cities of Aspen,
Berkeley, Boulder, Chicago, Oakland, Melbourne, Australia and Portland
and almost a hundred other corporations. Click for a complete
listing of members.
Goals
of CCX:
- To facilitate
the transaction of greenhouse gas allowance trading with price
transparency, design excellence and environmental integrity
- To build
the skills and institutions needed to cost-effectively manage
greenhouse gas
- To facilitate
capacity-building in both public and private sectors to facilitate
greenhouse gas mitigation
- To strengthen
the intellectual framework required for cost effective and valid
greenhouse gas reduction
- To help inform
the public debate on managing the risk of global climate change
I first spoke
with Dr. Richard Sandor about his nascent project in 2002 before
all of his acclaim, before the world took global warming seriously
and before Al Gore became the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. Certainly,
if you haven’t already heard of the Chicago Climate Exchange and
Dr. Sandor yet, you will. See below for Dr. Sandor’s description
of what the Exchange can and should do now and going forward.
This is a reprint
from NataliePace.com, vol. 1, issue 50.
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From
left to right: Dr. Richard L. Sandor, Chairman and CEO of CCX;
Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States; Andrew B.
Cogan, Knoll CEO; and Lou Newett, Knoll Environmental, Health
and Safety Manager at the GreenBuild
Conference in Chicago, Illinois on Nov. 7, 2007.
Greenbuild is the world's largest conference on green building.
Knoll has committed to sustainable design in their line of modern
furniture that "inspires, evolves and endures."
Photo © Knoll. |
Natalie Pace
– Citizens around the world have seen startling photos of deforestation
and melting ice sheets, yet so many of us continue with old habits.
What does it take to convince consumers and companies to give up
a little comfort now for the sake of our children?
Sandor-- What
kind, if any, discomfort results from lower greenhouse gas emissions?
Is it possible to have a net gain? We are in the business of trying
to develop financial institutions and infrastructure to deal with
pricing carbon. The debate can’t be brought to an adequate conclusion
until we know what the price of carbon is. We’re here to inform
the debate more than anything else. Rather than, basically, hypothesize
or build models, we really need to be Orville or Wilbur Wright.
We need this thing to fly for 56 seconds to prove that you can use
the price system to effectively allocate air, water, etc. That’s
the part of the debate that we’re participating in.
Are the technology
and development needed to reduce emissions prohibitively expensive
for companies? How do you tempt corporations, which have just now
returned to capital spending, to sign on? Are corporations signing
on because they believe in the cause or because they want to be
on the right side of the "green" debate?
Sandor--I think
they’re signing on for both of those reasons. They’re signing on
because, as one of the companies said it, "We really want to learn
about energy efficiency and carbon pricing and how they’re related."
When asked, what side of the debate he was going to be on, he justifiably
answered, "It depends on what the price is." It depends upon the
company’s abilities to learn and what incentives are provided. We’ve
got to paint the picture. Another motivation is that corporations
see a trend among their shareholders. Over $2 trillion is environmentally
screened in the U.S. capital markets. There’s a school of thought
that companies have a 1-2% "sustainability" premium in their stock
price. There seems to be customer demand on that side.
Some people
may be able to be low-cost providers of carbon credits. Another
facet of the issue is a desire to participate in the policy debate,
to learn what kinds of things should be included in the trading
systems, and what form that debate takes. [Corporations] want to
have an opinion that is based upon experience and data, and to advocate
their positions with solid information. And a very important reason
is that pro-active action on climate change is being perceived as
the right thing to do. There is growing scientific evidence suggesting
there is a significant problem, and they want to be seen to be on
the right side of the issue. There are also threats to shareholder
value in the form of growing demand for corporate disclosure on
climate change action, shareholder resolutions and increased liability.
You have risks and rewards driving the process, as well as people
believing in the right thing. So, the primary incentives are:
A. Increased
shareholder value and demand from stakeholders;
B. Threat
to shareholder values; and
C. The
desire to be on the right side of an issue with potential global
implications.
What is a
carbon credit? Please explain how these credits are traded, and
what kind of real world offsetting behavior can be expected.
Sandor---A carbon
credit is an allowance. This is a system of allowance and offsets.
You are allowed to emit a certain amount, and then you would have
a targeted reduction. Let’s say it was a million tons, and you promised
to get it down to 990,000 tons. If you knock it down to 980,000,
you have 10,000 allowances or credits. Those extra allowances can
be sold to somebody who hasn’t met their commitment. The result
of this will be that the people who can cut most efficiently will
do so. They have an incentive to do so because they can sell their
excess cuts. Those people who can’t are going to buy them. That
will be the cheaper cost to society of reaching the lower level
systematically.
Just how
is the Chicago Claim Exchange poised to address the problems of
environmental pollutants BETTER than the public sector?
Sandor--We believe
in free markets, and we believe that the government shouldn’t be
in the chip, semiconductors or financial exchange business. This
is a voluntary approach. We’re multi-sector. We have the involvement
of the agriculture and forestry sectors. We’re multi-national. This
is just one more evolutionary step to a full-scale market.
Just how
does the Chicago Climate Exchange bring sustainable farming and
forestry practices into the equation? What are your plans for Brazil,
and what other areas globally do you believe are ripe for reforestation?
In some other
systems you are only allowed to buy or sell credits that come from
emission reductions elsewhere in the system. We allow offsetting
behavior. For example, if you are a utility, you can reduce net
emission in your entity by doing offsetting behavior, such as planting
trees or changing soil practices. In a hypothetical example, you
can eliminate a million tons out of the smokestacks, or you can
sequester 20 million by bringing in carbon sequestration from reforestation.
Agriculture and forestry--we think that these are beneficial effects
to society, in addition to the carbon in the trees, wetlands, etc.,
in the form of improved soil and water quality.
Describe
the reforestation deal that you coordinated with the Montana Indian
Bureau, how it works and what the results so far indicate.
This was a deal
coordinated by our predecessor firm--Environmental Financial Products.
We were engaged by the Salish and Kootenai tribes. They had lost
some forest area to fires. We represented them and we sold the future
carbon that would come from reforesting parts of their land. They
took the proceeds and bought seedlings. The buyer was a European
firm that wanted to own carbon credits. It was a novel, cross-border
trade.
(NataliePace.com
Note: The purchase of "greenhouse gas emissions offsets," aka reforestation,
was a coordinated effort between Dr. Sandor, then Chairman of Sustainable
Forestry Management, the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes
of Montana and the Montana Carbon Offset Coalition. Mr. Tom Corse,
Supervisory Forester for the Montana Tribes was pleased to be part
of the "win-win" deal, saying, "This first project will set the
stage for a process that will help fund chronically under-funded
tribal reforestation projects and start the ball rolling on market-based
solutions to global warming.")
The fifteen
companies that made up the Founding and Charter members of the Chicago
Climate Exchange in 2002 had carbon dioxide emissions of 275 million
tons annually, which was half of the annual CO2 emissions of the
U.K. Was the commitment that they signed, binding them to reduce
emissions by 4% by 2006, enough?
Again the purpose
of this was initially as a pilot program. It was a demonstration
project. The job was to build the institutions. It’s like saying
to the Wright Brothers, "You only flew for 56 seconds. You couldn’t
even carry mail on that plane, so what good is it?" We want to build
the institutions. Markets are like personal computers. What Steven
Jobs had in the garage in Berkeley was a very rough copy of what
you have today. Financial innovation is like industrial innovation.
It occurs with a big idea and then subsequent refinements. We hope
to prove that it will fly. You can build the banking, verification,
monitoring, protocol, and prove that the system works and will evolve
over time.
If you have
more questions about this program, how it works or how to sign up
your corporation, go to http://www.chicagoclimateexchange.com.
Will Dr. Sandor
save the world and win a Nobel Prize to boot? Will Americans catch
on to the hybrid craze, started by Cameron Diaz, Harrison Ford,
Susan Sarandon and Robin Williams, who began showing up at the Oscars
in 2002 in their new Toyota Priuses? You know that your gas-guzzler
is so last year, when General Motors has committed to selling e-flex
electric cars, like the Chevy
Volt, beginning in 2010.
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The Subprime Housing Crisis.
by Dr.
Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, University Professor, Department of
Economics and Sociology, Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago.
The
vast majority of economists, including me, were surprised by the
extent of the subprime mortgage crisis. This needs to be recognized
when evaluating the numerous proposals about how to prevent the
next housing crisis, and also about how to help those who are in
danger of having their homes foreclosed.
Many economists
and members of Congress have claimed that the housing crisis was
greatly magnified because unqualified home buyers with limited incomes
and assets were not fully aware of the terms of their mortgage loans,
such as that the low initial (teaser) interest rates were only temporary.
This belief in the beneficial effects of greater knowledge about
mortgage terms is inconsistent with the evidence that the most sophisticated
banks and investment companies, including Merrill Lynch, Citibank,
and Morgan Stanley, have written down their housing investments
by billions of dollars. No one can reasonably claim that these banks
lacked the skills and knowledge to evaluate all the terms of, or
the likelihood of repayment, on the subprime and other mortgages
that they originated or held as assets. The losses to investors
have been so large, and have so eroded their capital base, that
some of the major investment companies have needed large infusions
of capital from Middle Eastern and Asian Sovereign Funds (see our
discussion of these funds on December 10th).
Although there
was some fraud by mortgage lenders and by borrowers, fraud was not
the main reason why so many subprime mortgages were issued. Otherwise
savvy investors greatly undervalued the risks associated with many
of the mortgage-backed securities that they held. They and borrowers
alike did not fully appreciate that interest rates were likely to
increase from their unusually low levels, and that many borrowers
lacked the financial means to meet their mortgage repayment obligations
at higher rates, and sometimes even at the low initial rates they
had received.
Given the low
interest rate lending atmosphere of the past few years, it is highly
unlikely that borrowers would have turned down the mortgages they
received if they had much better information about terms, or that
lenders would have been more reluctant to originate or hold these
mortgage assets if they had better information about the credit
and other circumstances of borrowers. This is why I doubt that the
rules proposed this week by the Federal Reserve to require lenders
to get more information about borrowers, and to provide more information
to borrowers about the terms of mortgage loans, would have been
effective in warding off this crisis, or will be effective in preventing
future crises.
Some have proposed
that families should not be allowed to get mortgages if they do
not meet minimum standards of income and assets, even if lenders
would be willing to provide mortgages, and would-be borrowers still
want a mortgage after being informed of the risks. This proposal
is a dangerous form of paternalism that denies the rights of both
borrowers and lenders to make their own decisions. Moreover, it
is ironic that only a few years ago, banks were being investigated
for "redlining"; that is, for avoiding lending to blacks and other
residents of poor neighborhoods. The Fair Housing Act of 1968 prohibits
discrimination in lending, and The Community Reinvestment Act of
1977 requires banks to use the same lending criteria in all communities,
regardless of the living standards of residents. As a result of
the present crisis, however, banks and other lenders are being criticized
for equal opportunity lenient lending to all, including black residents
of depressed neighborhoods.
The United States
housing market is riddled with subsidies and regulations, including
among many others, insurance by the Federal Housing authority of
mortgages to first time and low income homeowners, tax deductibility
of interest payments on mortgages –to families that itemize their
deductions- and the quasi-governmental Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac
Corporations that channel billions of dollars to the mortgage market.
Nevertheless, both the White House and leading Congressional Democrats
have proposed additional rules to help borrowers who may have difficulty
avoiding foreclosure under present conditions. Treasury Secretary
Paulson has been negotiating "voluntary" agreements with mortgage
lenders to freeze the low introductory rates for five years on some
subprime home loans, and to offer borrowers the right to refinance
their loans into more affordable mortgages. The Democrats want to
go much further than the administration, and have proposed, for
example, to help homeowners renegotiate terms of their mortgages
if forced into bankruptcy.
I am skeptical
of additional government interventions into a housing market that
already has too much. To be sure, homeowners who only temporarily
have trouble meeting repayment schedules on their mortgages should
not have to go into foreclosure. But lenders already have strong
incentives to help these borrowers since lenders are also hurt by
foreclosures, especially in the current weak housing market where
it is not possible to sell repossessed homes at reasonable prices
in poorer neighborhoods. Lenders also have much better evidence
and experience than governments can ever have regarding which borrowers
have a reasonable chance of handling their mortgages if given some
temporary help, such as allowing selected borrowers to be in arrears
on payments for a while, permitting some borrowers to renegotiate
terms, and making other adjustments that raise the likelihood of
eventual repayment. Lenders also are better informed about which
borrowers are hopelessly in debt, and are better off going into
bankruptcy rather than trying to sacrifice savings or consumption
to meet their mortgage payments.
A counterargument
to this skepticism is that the government should intervene further
in the housing market because the Fed is partly responsible for
the crisis by keeping interest rates artificially low. Perhaps the
Fed did keep the federal funds rate too low for a couple of years
preceding the onset of the crisis, but low interest rates were found
worldwide. The main reason for the low rates was not the Fed, but
the high savings rates in China and other rapidly developing nations
that put pressure on interest rates all over the world.
Instead, the
Fed, Treasury, and Congress should concentrate on using monetary
and possibly tax policies to help maintain the strength of the American
economy that has so far done well despite the housing crisis. If
these policies can help promote continued growth of GDP, probably
for several months at a slower pace than during the past few years,
with a robust labor market and low unemployment, borrowers in reasonably
good economic shape will likely keep their homes as they navigate
through the housing crisis.
To keep track
of Dr.
Becker’s continuing research and recommendations, visit
his web
site and blog.
To hear more of Dr. Becker’s recommendations for strengthening the
U.S. economy, attend the Milken
Global Economic Conference in April 2008.
|
Oil
and Gas Scams:
by the
Securities and Exchange Commission
Common
Red Flags and Steps You Can Take to Protect Yourself.
Henry
. . . was a successful business man, married for 30 years, raised
a family and had a good life . . . after his wife’s death, he received
an [overnight] package of materials with all kinds of reports, and
it was offering an oil and gas investment . . . And it was unsolicited.
. . he ignored it . . . But the next day, a salesman called him
and used high-pressure sales tactics . . . to persuade him to invest
$40,000. And here are some examples of what was said to him on the
phone: "These gas wells are guaranteed to produce $6,800 a
month in income;" "Some of the most successful investors
in the country are interested in these wells;" "There
are only two units left in this project;" "We drilled
a well in Texas that had these same early gas readings, and the
investors all made millions." . . . Over a three year-period,
Henry was recontacted 12 times and invested, essentially, his life
savings in 4 different gas wells, each time thinking that he had
to invest or lose his original investment . . . He ultimately lost
over $500,000 to this oil and gas scam investing in wells that always
seemed promising at first . . .
- Description
of an oil and gas scam victim at the SEC’s first-ever Seniors Summit
(July 2006)
If you think
you’ve found the right oil or gas investment to "strike it
rich," consider this: it may be a scam. While some oil and
gas investment opportunities are legitimate, many oil and gas ventures
are frauds. Many of these schemes start in so-called "boiler
rooms," where skilled telemarketers use high pressure sales
tactics to convince you to hand over your hard-earned money.
Once they have
your money, scam artists pay themselves first, often using funds
to pay personal expenses. In the end, only some of your money may
be invested in an actual oil or natural gas well, or none at all.
Red
Flag Warnings
If
you are considering an oil and gas investment, look for these "red
flag" warnings of fraud:
1. Sales
Pitches Focused on Highly Publicized News. Scam artists read
the headlines, too. Often, they’ll use a highly publicized
news item, like volatile gas prices, to lure potential investors
and make their "opportunity" sound more legitimate.
2. "Can’t
Miss" Wells. Every investment carries some degree of risk
so you should be skeptical of any oil and gas investment opportunity
pitched as completely safe. Fraudsters often spend a lot of time
trying to convince you that extremely high returns are "guaranteed"
or "can't miss." Don't believe it.
3. Unsolicited
Materials. Be especially careful if you receive unsolicited
materials about an investment. Simply ignoring investment-related
"junk" faxes, emails, voice mail messages, and regular
mail may be your best strategy. And don’t let a package full of
colorful marketing materials impress you, even if it’s sent by certified
or overnight mail. If you’re not going to research an opportunity
fully, do yourself a favor and put any unsolicited materials in
the recycle bin immediately. If someone calls to follow up regarding
the materials, tell him or her "thanks, but no thanks"
and hang up. [Hanging up is critical because scam artists often
use scripted sale pitches to keep you on the phone.]
4. Limited
Opportunities. Scam artists often try to give you the impression
that the " opportunity" they are promoting is scarce,
hoping you will hand over your money hastily before doing any due
diligence. Resist the pressure to invest quickly, and take the time
you need to investigate before sending money.
5. High
Rates of Return. Compare promised yields with current returns
on well-known stock indexes. Any investment opportunity that claims
you'll get substantially more could be highly risky. And that means
you might lose money.
6. Tips
or Secrets. A promoter may discourage you from talking about
the opportunity with someone you trust, like a loved one, attorney
or financial professional. If that happens, stop listening, and
leave or hang up. Then, be sure to contact us.
Steps
You Can Take to Protect Yourself
Here
are some steps you can take to avoid being scammed:
- Ask questions
and check out the answers. Fraudsters rely on the sad truth
that many people simply don't bother to investigate before they
invest. It's not enough to ask a promoter for more information
or for references - fraudsters have no incentive to set you straight.
Savvy investors take the time to do their own independent research.
- Contact
state oil and gas regulatory agencies. You may be able to
verify information provided in offering materials by contacting
the oil and gas regulatory agency in which the wells are allegedly
being drilled. For example, these agencies generally have information
about a company’s drilling history that could confirm claims of
prior success.
Investor
Tidbit:
You
might be surprised to learn that the Railroad Commission of Texas
oversees the Texas oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, state oil
and gas regulatory agencies don’t have uniform names. If you’re
having trouble finding the agency that regulates oil and gas in
a particular state, enter the State’s name - followed by "oil
and gas" - into your favorite Internet search engine. The appropriate
agency should be listed near the top of your search results. If
you are still having trouble, call us at (800) 732-0330.
- Research
the company before you invest. You can contact the secretary
of state where the company is incorporated to find out whether
the company is a corporation in good standing. You also will want
to understand the company's business and its products or services
before investing. Before buying any stock, check out the company's
financial statements on the SEC's website, or contact your state
securities regulator. All but the smallest public companies have
to file financial statements with us. If the company doesn't file
with us, you'll have to do a great deal of work on your own to
make sure the company is legitimate and the investment appropriate
for you. That's because the lack of reliable, readily available
information about company finances can open the door to fraud.
Remember that unsolicited materials should never be used as the
sole basis for an investment decision.
- Know the
salesperson. Spend some time checking out the person touting
the investment before you invest - even if you already know the
person socially. Always find out whether the securities salespeople
who contact you are licensed to sell securities in your state
and whether they or their firms have had run-ins with regulators
or other investors. You can check out the disciplinary history
of brokers and advisers quickly - and for free - using the SEC's
and FINRA's
online databases. Your state securities regulator may have additional
information.
If you
encounter a problem with an oil and gas investment, you can send
the SEC your complaint using their online complaint form at www.sec.gov/complaint.shtml.
You can also reach the SEC by regular mail at:
Securities and
Exchange Commission
Office
of Investor Education and Advocacy
100 F
Street, N.E.
Washington,
D.C. 20549-0213
Remember - an
educated investor is the best defense against fraud! For more information
on how to invest wisely and avoid fraud, please visit the Investor
Information section of the SEC website.
This article
is reprinted with permission from the SEC.
|
2008 Company of the
Year.
Natalie
Pace chats with Premium Subscribers on 2008, green, how to get started
on the path to wise investing and more!
Earlier
this month, premium subscribers were treated to a Q&A with Natalie
Pace on how to start on the path of wise investing, how to use the
Hot News on Cool Stocks article and what to do about companies,
like Apple, that are so exciting that everyone wants to buy in at
the 52-week high! Natalie also dropped the news that she will be
reporting on her Company of the Year in October, instead of January,
and discussed the reasons why. Very important news indeed!
Natalie: Good
morning! Before we begin the Q&A, let’s start with a general
market overview. It’s been quite a rollercoaster this year, hasn’t
it? One thing I don’t want to overlook, however, is that the markets
are still up on the year and have produced strong results over the
last two years.
General
Stock Market Performance
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 12.24.2007
|
Gains 23 & 11 months
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,549.33
|
+25% & +8.6%
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,713.50
|
+21% & +12%
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,496.45
|
+18% & +5.6%
|
FYI: we predicted
Nasdaq to be the 2007 superstar performer earlier back in November
of 2006. Click on Wow! Dow! Or Nasdaq
Now! Article, from vol. 3, issue 11, to review that
article.
As you can see
in the chart above, Nasdaq is still outperforming the S&P500
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indices by quite a lot. Legacy
corporations have been more burdened with debt and pension plan
obligations than younger corporations, like Google and Microsoft,
and as a result are underperforming the marketplace. On the other
hand, technology, Internet, new media and clean energy were posting
very strong growth in real sales worldwide, and employed staff who
were accustomed to managing their own pension and health care. Without
the extra pressure on the bottom line or the administrative nightmare
of managing the plans, many younger companies on the West Coast
are sitting on war chests of cash, including Google, Microsoft,
Apple and more.
Going forward,
the most important thing for everyone to do is to look at their
current nest egg and make sure that it is properly allocated, so
that they are not over-exposed to pension, debt and health liabilities
in the event of a slow-down in the economy – which is being predicted.
The pension plan revolution that is going on in America is not being
well-publicized, but rest assured that those corporations that are
still negotiating with their workforce to pay pennies on the dollar
on their retirement obligations are increasingly vulnerable in a
worldwide marketplace.
Clean energy
is the bright spot on the horizon, and the returns in that industry
are only beginning. Europe is leading the world on its commitment
to clean energy, with Germany as the number one solar energy country.
However, as a result of the popularity of all things green, you
have to beware of extremely high prices in any company that is involved
in solar, wind or clean electric energy.
A rising tide
lifts all ships in the stock market, but a sinking tide certainly
grounds even the speediest boats as well. In fact, as a result of
the uncertainty in the marketplace going into 2008, I am postponing
the naming of the 2008 Company of the Year until September 2008.
I’ve been tempted to do that every year since I began publishing
because September is the lowest performing month of the year in
the stock market (historically), and thus, a better buying month
for the year. (Even companies like Suntech, our 2007 Company of
the Year, have done better from their October buy-in than the January
price.) Since I’m not thrilled with the forward-looking economic
data I’m seeing, 2008 is the year to switch the Company of the Year
announcement from January to October.
In short, I
think the most important game in town in 2008 will be asset allocation
and underweighting legacy companies, particularly in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. In the trading portfolio (that much smaller
percent of your nest egg where you take on higher risk for higher
gain), I’d be very interested in profit taking at every opportunity
available. I’d avoid buying into high price to earnings ratios.
Price to earnings ratios vary by industry and maturity of a company,
so I cannot merely give you a number to avoid. If you don’t have
a great understanding of P/E, your first step should be getting
more educated, in the chats and retreats that we offer, before you
begin trading stocks or options!
There is still
room in the January 2-5, 2008 Get
Rich and EnRich Retreat. If you are interested in re-examining
your portfolio, retracing or learning the fundamentals and getting
your foundation of wealth secure, then move heaven and earth to
be at this life-changing retreat. Call 1.866.476.7442 NOW or go
to the Get Rich and EnRich banner ad, which is located on the home
page at NataliePace.com.
Questions
and Answers:
Subscriber:
I am starting out my subscription with NataliePace.com fully invested
and holding perhaps 75 different stocks. Should I just sell them
all and start with Natalie's suggestions? Or what?
Natalie: Your
first step will be selecting a great certified financial planner,
who can help you assess the best plan going forward based upon your
desires, goals, income and retirement age. Be careful about just
selling everything. You could have very expensive, and perhaps unnecessary,
tax liabilities, unless you are selling within a tax-protected account
and not withdrawing any funds. Again, getting educated and selecting
the second most important person in your life – your certified financial
planner – are the first steps before you just jump in and take bold
actions. I’d suggest that you consider coming to the retreat January
2-5, 2008. The investment you make into four days of learning should
be enough to get the foundation of your house of wealth laid and
a game plan going forward. (Remember: I’m not a broker; I’m a journalist.
A broker should know your individual needs and goals and help draw
the game plan to get you there.)
How do you
think Apple is performing?
We listed Apple
at $85. I think it’s performing fantastically! Are you looking to
buy or sell?
I think it
looks exciting from the ground and grass roots, the iPhone and the
computer, so I think I’m looking to buy.
Have you done
the Stock Report Card yet, to make sure that you are following the
investment recipe? Have you asked the four questions to determine
that it is going to lead the industry going forward? Are there any
competing companies that might challenge Apple in 2008?
Click to access
your own
Blank Stock Report Card. I recommend setting this up
in your own Word or Excel document, so that you can sort the companies
by Price to Earnings ratio. (You can also find a blank stock report
card under the Investor Edu section, Stock Report Card option.)
Below are the
investment recipe and the four easy questions for picking the leader
in the sector.
Investment
Recipe:
- Invest in
what you love
- Pick the
leader in the industry (in real estate, it’s location, location,
location)
- Buy low,
sell high
4 questions
to Determine the Leader in the Sector
- What’s the
product?
- Who’s going
to buy it and why would they like that product more than the competitor’s
version?
- Can the
company make a superior product now and going forward, and get
it to the masses while the appetite of their customers is piqued
and the product is fresh?
- Who’s running
the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver superior
product faster, cheaper, better?
I’m a newbie.
I was going to open an account on Scottrade and put in some money
on the highlighted picks on the hot list, but don’t know if I should
invest in the highlighted picks that came out on the 1st
of December and are no longer highlighted in the mid month report.
Good thinking!
Your perspective is key for all newbies. The highlights are key!
The companies that are highlighted are trading at or near the price
that we first featured them at, and thus, might be in buying range.
The companies on the list that are not highlighted are already moving
up from where they came onto the list. It could be because the price
has risen, or it could be because the outlook going forward has
become less auspicious.
Thank you.
When a pick gets taken off and you have it, do you sell it then
right away?
It is important
to realize the difference between "taken off" and "not
highlighted." When a company is on the Hot list, but not highlighted,
it means that it still has potential to earn gains, based upon the
news that we’ve been able to review and report on. When a company
is deleted from the list, then that means that there is a lot of
news and red flags indicating that the prognosis going forward is
not great. Since we are a news organization and not a brokerage,
we’re reporting on news, not giving you a buy/sell recommendation,
so you’ll always be able to review the facts and make your own determination.
In fact, some companies might still be great for a long-term portfolio,
but we’re taking it off the list because anyone looking to "buy
low and sell high" would want to lock in gains for the short
term. The real question to determine is simply "What is your
personal game plan with regard to the stock in question?" And
that question is for you and your CFP to determine.
I’m utilizing
highlighting and deleting from the lists to help you understand
how I would interpret the news, but, as I indicate at the beginning
and the end of the article, your choice to buy and sell must take
into consideration your personal needs and desires. For instance,
a day-trader might buy and sell Google five times a year (and have
great gains), whereas another person might buy Google at the 52-week
low and hold it to for decades to will to the kids. Only you and
your CFP know which plan is right for you.
Apple is a fantastic
company with fantastic products that are going to continue to lead
the world into 2008. There is a lot of room for sales growth, since
they don’t own a very large percentage of the marketplace of computers.
(They certainly own the marketplace of music.) However, their computers
are so much more expensive that there will continue to be a built
in marketplace for the PCs of the world. And Apple’s share price
has already doubled this year. If the stock market softens in 2008,
it will be harder for Apple to score fantastic returns. Not impossible.
But harder. These are things that are to be considered when you
buy and sell stocks, and statistics we report on twice a month,
as conditions in the economy are always changing!
I’m new as
well, and really did not use a technique to buy other than the fact
I liked their products. I will do more research before I buy!
Apple’s price
is high and the price to earnings ratio is also high for such a
big company. Remember the third ingredient in cooking up profits
– NEVER PAY RETAIL! A successful investment in anything, a great
company, great home or a great classic car – is only possible when
you buy low and sell high. If you buy high, you might wait years
to earn gains!
I agree but
I thought perhaps they would break out.
You are educating
yourself! Bravo! Anyone who picks a great mentor and copies what
s/he does is going to learn faster and better, so I applaud you
for being willing to learn. Btw: Apple is a company that I follow
on my Hot News list, so "researching it" can be as easy
as reading a 5-minute update on the recent news (put in context
with the news over the past few quarters). I featured Apple in February
of 2007 at $85. They have already broken out, especially given that
they had to jump above the market’s rollercoaster ride in 2007.
Apple has more than doubled! Remember another cardinal rule: if
you’re buying on news, you’re late. We listed Apple a few months
BEFORE the iPhone release, and got to watch the elation of consumers
who loved the product. If you’re buying now because the iPhone is
making headlines, odds are that you’re buying high. If you want
to verify, check the 52-week low and high.
You can always
put Apple on your shopping list and wait for a better buy-in. The
stock markets wax and wane month-to-month and year-to-year. Gains
usually favor patient investors.
Do you suggest
stop loss orders when initially buying the stocks on the Hot List?
And how do I learn or know where to put them?
This is just
my opinion, but I don’t like stop loss orders ever, and especially
for the Hot News List. I think that you should do more research
BEFORE you buy, which means there will be less odds that the investment
is a bad one, if it heads south for a little while. In that scenario,
when an investment heads south, it could actually be an opportunity
to add more shares to your portfolio at a bargain price.
Thanks that
makes things easier!
Well here’s
why: most companies that I feature are featured early. Most companies
that I’m featuring, we’re featuring them early. You never know when
they are going to pop. I can give you tons of examples, including
some of the best performing companies on the list, that have gone
down before they went on for extraordinary gains. Since we’re highlighting
the companies when they are in buying range, if they go down, you’ve
got the opportunity – perhaps – for a two for one sale, as in the
case of Wisdom Tree! The companies on the list have been carefully
researched. They won’t all win, but I think stop loss orders are
for people who are not going through the proper and thorough examination
in the first place, to determine that they’ve made a sound investment
and purchased at a reasonable price. Remember, sound evaluation
of a stock means that you turn over enough pieces of the puzzle
to get a good picture of the health of the company BEFORE you buy.
I recently
came into an unexpected windfall and have a nice amount of money
to invest. I know you suggest putting an amount equal to my age
in safer vehicles such as bonds and certificates of deposits. What
should I be looking for when considering those options?
Congrats on
your windfall! The most important next step that you take is to
find a great certified financial planner/money manager. Get referrals
from rich people who love what their broker is doing for them. Do
not rely upon referrals from banks or just walk in cold to brokerages,
if you can avoid it. If you have more than $250,000, you should
qualify for active money management from a veteran who has had over
two decades in the business, like Kelley Wright at Investment Quality
Trends and Paul Woods and Meri Anne Beck-Woods at Odyssey Advisors.
(Contact them through their websites at IQTrends.com
and OdysseyAdvisors.com,
respectively.)
Bonds are very
difficult to invest in on your own. Bond funds are NOT bonds, they
are stocks. So, if you have to diversify on your own for now, it’s
easier to keep that safe part of your portfolio in T-Bills and money
markets than it is to get up to speed on bonds. Although you may
not be getting superstar returns, cash was the top-performing asset
class in 2000 and 2001, when the stock market slid, during that
recession. That is what asset allocation is for – to protect you
from the volatility and/or backtracking of the stock market.
Read How
to Find a Broker
for tips on what questions to ask, and how to investigate (easily)
whether or not the broker you are interviewing is a rock star performer
or has complaints from prior clients. This article is located under
the Investor Edu link on the home page at NataliePace.com.
I’m very
new at this. My first question is, "Where do I go to get a
good stock broker that will listen to me and what I want to choose,
not try to force me into diversifying?" If you recommend that
I do it myself, where do I start? I’ve heard of e-Trade, but like
I said, I’m very new at this and would like to do what’s best for
me. I am in the process of selling my company and will have some
assets to leverage in the market soon. I need sage advice!
Brokers are
salesmen, and you could get sucked into something that’s not right
for you simply because s/he would like the commission. So, interview
at least 3 qualified candidates for the job, and take the questions
in the "How
to Find a Broker" article with you. Make sure that
you tell any qualified candidate your investment criteria BEFORE
you open the account, and listen carefully to their response. If
s/he responds, "You should be more concerned with returns,"
that is a red flag that should alert you that s/he wants to be in
control and may be resistant to following your desires. If s/he
says, "I know some great ETFs you can choose from," that’s
a green light that s/he is not only listening, but also well versed
in the space! Check into the person’s background on FINRA.ORG
for any complaints before putting your life savings into his/her
hands.
There are two
great money managers, who take clients with over $250,000 in assets,
who write frequently for my website. Both have decades of experience.
So, you might call OdysseyAdvisors.com
and IQTrends.com
as well.
ELON has
taken a down side hit lately. They still look like they are on the
right track to me, however. Any thoughts?
I just bought
shares in ELON yesterday. Full disclosure. Their last quarter wasn’t
up to the earnings potential they wanted, and Wall Street punished
them, but I still like the company. I’m going to keep a close eye
on upcoming news, but I like the product and love the red-hot industry
of clean energy, which is only just beginning to catch fire!
I’ve also
bought some more. Also, wondering about eBay with the Skype acquisition.
No movement yet. Your thoughts?
EBay took a
tax-related write down for their purchase of Skype. The markets
interpreted that as the company "overpaying" for Skype,
which in the one-year perspective might be true, but, in my view,
will not be true for the long term. As I’ve said many, many times,
most people are unaware that Skype is the fastest growing site on
the Internet, ahead of social networking giants like MySpace! eBay’s
write-down of the investment was beneficial on a tax basis. I think
Wall Street didn’t report on this well, and that once investors
start seeing the Skype revenue in a different light, eBay will benefit.
What’s hot
this month to buy?
In general,
I’m not in a buying mood in December. I like the September Back
to School Stock Sales the most for buying. I like January for looking
to see which companies have made me a lot of money and whether I
need to sell to lock in those profits. As I mentioned earlier, I’m
so keen on this going into 2008 that I’ve delayed announcing my
Company of the Year until October 2008.
Do you think
the Feds will continue to drop rates?
The Feds will
have a lot of pressure going forward to keep the economy chugging
in the face of less M&A activity and a softening real estate
market, but that is offset against rising inflation due to the commodities
costs, like oil and metals and a need for a stronger U.S. dollar
to compete on the world stage. So, as I say quite a lot, "There
are about 99 laws that can predict about 3% of the things that happen
in the financial world," and nothing is ever certain in this
field! I’ll have a very strong idea of what’s going on in a few
months when I check in with my mentor, Dr. Gary Becker. Dr. Becker
is the best predictor of forward movement of the economy of anyone
I know! In the meantime, the best medicine is to check in twice
a month to get my news updates, and make sure that your assets are
allocated and protected!
Having said
all of those disclaimers, I’m just journalist, but I’d say interest
rate cuts may be in our future. It won’t help subprime mortgage
foreclosures very much, however, because it is the people who having
their payments double at the new reset rate who are getting into
trouble, not the average homeowner.
What are
your thoughts on Libor rates this year?
Libor is not
my area of expertise. However, my general comment would be that
unless you’re an economist or an analyst, there is no reason for
you to be trying to figure out every economic update that comes
across the wire. Newbies try to figure out what they should do by
looking at the data that professionals look at, and that is not
going to be a winning strategy until you become a professional and
really know how to utilize all that data (a multi-year investment
in financial services education). And even professionals are earning
on average just 10-12% a year. I don’t profess to know the first
thing about all of this, and have a system based upon common sense
and consumer experience that works much better.
Dr. Becker looks
at a lot of data, but the single-most important factor that correlates
with GDP growth, according to Dr. Becker, is productivity. Makes
sense, doesn’t it? When people are working hard making products
that the world loves, that country grows. Google’s employees were
doing a bang-up job of getting a product to the world that we loved.
General Motors and Ford were surpassed by Toyota in their products.
Those simple facts are not economic data that you see reported on
very often, outside of these pages. So, if I were you, I wouldn’t
hang on LIBOR reports, or Fed action or trying to read any tea leaves.
The state of the corporations and its contributions to the larger
economy are easier to sense, smell and understand when you see the
conditions of the workplace, the popularity and durability of the
product and all of that occurring at a price you can afford!
The pundits
you are watching on television are briefed more on their sound bytes
than they are on their statistics, so if you’re going to have a
news source outside of NataliePace.com, I only suggest that you
be very discriminating and select journalists who are interviewing
the same admired economists and analysts that I am relying upon
and telling a more complete story than just the most recent news
line item. Many of the television financial news shows are for entertainment,
more than the usable value of their information.
So, are all
the news programs about the economy and the market just a waste
of time and energy?
Most news reports
are negative – statistically – by far. And a large portion of the
daily news shows are simply reporting the data off of press releases
– i.e. recent news, without very little regard for important historical
information or how that piece fits into the puzzle going forward.
I think power searches to find information on the company you are
interested in, along with that company’s competitors, are a far
better idea. You can organize that data in a Stock Report Card,
and get a far more complete picture than you’ll read in the majority
of the articles and television reports available. If you come to
my retreat, I’ll teach you both power searches and how to complete
the Stock Report Card. If you can’t come, keep educating yourself
by reading the news in this ezine and coming into the chats we host
online.
When can
we turn on and what stations? Are there any media sources that you
recommend?
Dr.
Gary Becker,
FINRA.org,
FederalReserve.gov,
SEC.gov
and NataliePace.com!
Click on the names to access their websites, or Google them. Dr.
Becker has a great blog on the subprime housing crisis this month!
It is a must read. You’ll learn more at the seat of the masters
than the pundits!
When can
we see you on TV?
I’m flying under
the radar while I finish my book. The book is slated for a fall
2008 release, at which time I’ll be booking as many national television
shows as possible! Oprah here I come!
How do you
currently feel about WWAT, UXG and HOKU?
Check out this
month’s Hot News on Cool Stocks List for an update!
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
Citigroup, WaMu and
HSBC:
by Kelley
Wright, managing editor of Investment
Quality Trends.
The
Financials Swallow a Bitter Pill.
Well, this December/Santa
Claus rally thing just isn't following the script now is
it? With
the inflation numbers of the mid-December, we now know why the Fed
didn't
lower by a half a point. Of course it didn't stop the Street from
throwing a
little tantrum when they didn't get their way but come on, with
the dollar being
systematically devalued what did everyone think was going to happen
to the
price of commodities? In hindsight the Fed didn't really have a
choice. As
I opined in this space in July/August, the banks needed to do three
things: 'fess
up and take the write-downs; roll the assets they couldn't sell
or didn't want
to mark-to-market onto their balance sheets; slash costs, which
means pink
slips.
One and three
above have been pretty much done by most and now Citi, WaMu
and HSBC have finally bit the bullet on number two. As an old mentor
of mine
was fond of saying, "There is no pain in change; only in the resistence
to change." Indeed.
WaMu took some
pretty severe medicine; my suspicion is that they know they
have some more write-downs coming so they wanted to set aside the
provisions
for now and just get the pain and bad news out at once. They
did give the Street a little surprise when they bumped their preferred
offering
to 3 billion from the originally stated 2.5 billion, which shaved
another
couple of points off the stock, but they may have finally found
a bottom.
We will know soon.
Gold is acting
a little curious; with the inflation numbers, one would expect gold
to be screaming higher. This may be a case of selling on the news,
which means I believe it is just a normal retracement.
Well it is time
to close the books on '07, which I think for many will be a pleasure.
This is one pig that there just isn't enough lipstick for.
May you and
yours have a Blessed New Year.
Peace,
Kelley
Kelley Wright
is currently outperforming all of his peers, by bringing in the
top risk-adjusted returns on Wall Street for the past 20 years,
with his stock newsletter, IQTrends.com, at 12.8% annualized gains,
according to Hulbert’s Financial Digest. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com.
|
Attract the People
You Want and Repel the People You Don’t Want.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
You
want to become expert at repelling people. Take a stand for yourself,
choose your likes and dislikes, and stand proudly in them. Don’t
worry about trying to fit in. When you are truly yourself, other
people will see it and know you for who you are. This simplifies
life immeasurably. Your People will be drawn to you more quickly,
and Not Your People run away far and fast. This is a good thing.
You don’t want your life cluttered up with a bunch of people who
don’t really like you. It’s too much of a time and energy—and money—drain.
I was thinking
about this as I drove to the Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles,
to speak to the Los Angeles Chapter of NAWBO (National Association
of Women Business Owners). I was dressed in my usual "Give-a-speech-costume"—blouse,
blazer, pants and gold tennis shoes. Gold tennis shoes are part
of my brand now—I’ve been recognized in bookstores because of my
shoes. I had a slight hesitation about wearing them to this event
since it was a rather corporate environment, but I decided to stick
with my usual style.
Wouldn’t you
know, my momentary hesitation manifested itself in a challenge issued
to me by one of the Jonathan Club employees in the lobby. "Excuse
me, miss," he said frowning disapprovingly at my feet, "but
we don’t allow tennis shoes in our club."
Oops! Caught
already. I grinned up at him and said, "I’m terribly sorry,
but I am the speaker this evening and this is my costume."
He wasn’t buying
it. "Don’t you have any other shoes?" he inquired.
"No,"
I shrugged, "not with me." Oh, dear, I thought, am I going
to be thrown out? Barred from the club? My eyes widened and I shifted
into sales mode, "You know, I’m sure your dress code means
tennis shoes as in gym shoes. These are clearly not dirty
old gym shoes—they are gold mesh, dressy shoes with diamonds on
them."
He paused for
a long moment as he thought this over, examining my feet. It must
have made sense to him, because he said, "Okay…but hurry!"
He wanted me out of his jurisdiction as soon as possible, and I
was happy to oblige him as I scurried upstairs to the meeting room.
The meeting
was fabulous with lots of great people—no one else in tennis shoes,
I noted. (They must have been tipped off to the dress code.) They
were all wearing those high-heeled pointy-toed instruments of torture
the fashion industry insists on foisting on us—and we pay big bucks
for them, too. And this is different from ancient Chinese foot-binding—how?
Now I’m always comfortable. It made a big difference in my shoe
budget, too.
The reactions
to my gold shoes are always very interesting. Lots of people smile
and comment how they just love my shoes, how comfortable they look,
etc. I know these are My People. And of course, some people don’t
like them—one woman told me after the talk that I should dress more
professionally if I was going to talk about a serious subject like
money. I just smiled, because that’s one of the problems I’m trying
to solve—that people are too serious about money. Besides, I knew
what she did for a living—she sold suits!
People—like
shoes—come in different styles. Yvonne Williams, author of Don’t
Wear Tight Shoes, told me that women are having their little
toes removed so they can wear Jimmy Choo shoes. Eeww. Stop blending
in. You are unique. Pick your own style. I remember once walking
through the Book Expo in my gold tennies, getting snooty looks from
some New York babes-in-black in their pinchy-feet-eight-inch-spike
heels. I reveled in it. I’m not part of any matched set. My astrologer
promises me that I’m going to become more eccentric. Fabulous! Best
news she could give me. Maybe I’ll "wear purple and a red hat
that doesn’t go," too.
But don’t judge
me until you walk a mile in my gold tennis shoes.
Chellie
Campbell is the author of Zero to Zillionaire
and The Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial
Stress Reduction® Workshops, on which her book is based, in
the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country.
If you are
stuck in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month
at the end of your money," Chellie’s workshop might be just what
you need to get things on the right track. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.
|
Twenty Tax Tips for Year-End 2007.
by Rande
Spiegelman, vice president, financial planning, Schwab
Center for Financial Research
If
tax time is more terrifying to you than your holiday credit card
bill, read on. First, take heart that you have more than two months
to take action to minimize the pain of April 15. Then, consider
the 20 bite-size tax tips below affecting key areas of your financial
life -- specifically your portfolio.
Whether you
do your own taxes or rely on a tax professional, these tried-and-true
strategies may help you keep more of your hard-earned income and
boost your after-tax returns. After all, it's what you keep that
counts!
Get
Started: Six Simple Steps
Dust
off last year's return. Using it as a starting point, begin this
year's process by updating some of the key inputs: your salary and
other income, deductions, and the dependents you'll claim. If you
use tax preparation software (such as that available at www.schwab.com/tax),
it's easy to run a quick estimate of where you stand.
Alternatively,
you can ask your accountant for an early read. If the initial estimate
seems high, don't panic. Get going by taking these six simple steps.
- Double-check
your withholding. You want to pay the IRS its due but not
a penny more. So make sure you're not having too much (or too
little) taken out of each paycheck. The same holds if you make
quarterly estimated tax payments.
- Consolidate
debt. Consider replacing credit card debt with a lower-rate,
tax-deductible home equity loan or line of credit.
- Account
for refinancings. If you lowered your mortgage interest rate
in the past year, you may now have a lower-interest deduction.
Also, if you used any of the proceeds for something other than
physical improvements to your home, that amount may be subject
to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). On the brighter side, remember
that points paid in prior refinancings that you didn't already
deduct can be deducted in the year you refinanced again.
- Prepay
quarterly estimated state tax payments. If you're not vulnerable
to the AMT, consider paying your fourth-quarter 2007 estimated
state income taxes (plus any estimated balance due) by Dec. 31
so you can take the deduction on your 2007 taxes.
- Prepay
property taxes. Many counties bill taxpayers twice, in November
and February. If you pay your February installment by Dec. 31,
you can take it as a deduction on your 2007 return. Again, watch
out for the AMT, which disallows these deductions.
- Avoid
the AMT. More taxpayers are facing the AMT, particularly those
living in high-tax states. If you're one of these taxpayers, you
might want to flip the typical strategy of deferring income and
accelerating certain deductions. Instead, try to defer payment
of state and local taxes and accelerate income to the point where
you're no longer subject to the AMT. Multiyear planning is a must
-- talk to a tax professional.
Portfolio
Planning: Three Tax-Smart Rebalancing Strategies
Year-end
is a great time to give your portfolio a checkup. Consider these
tax-smart strategies to help boost your after-tax returns.
- Harvest
losses. No one likes a losing investment. But at tax time,
they can be blessings in disguise, as you can use capital losses
to offset taxable capital gains, plus up to $3,000 in ordinary
income ($1,500 for married couples filing separately). Look in
your taxable accounts for investments with relatively large losses
where you don't expect a comeback. Remember, any losses you can't
use to offset gains this year can be carried over into future
tax years. One word of caution: Watch out for the so-called wash
sale rule, which prohibits taxpayers from recognizing losses on
sales of securities that are repurchased within 30 days.
- Make the
most of tax-advantaged accounts. You can also use retirement
accounts to help rebalance your portfolio without incurring a
tax hit. Let's say your long-term plan calls for 60 percent stocks
and 40 percent fixed income, but the recent rally has pushed your
stock holdings to 70 percent of the portfolio -- and you have
no losses (congratulations!). You might still be able to bring
your asset allocation back in line without incurring 2007 taxes
by selling stocks in tax-deferred retirement accounts like IRAs
or 401(k)s.
- Consider
cash flow. If you're living off your portfolio in retirement,
remember to set aside any cash you might need for the next 12
months as you rebalance. Assuming the portfolio described above,
you'd sell the 10 percent overweight to stocks, take out what
you need to live on and then reinvest the rest in bonds until
you're back on target.
Retirement:
Four Tax-Savvy Planning Ideas
- Take full
advantage of your employee retirement plan, at least to the
point of any employer match. And if you're 50 or older, make a
catch-up contribution. If you expect to be in a higher tax bracket
down the road (for example, younger workers who have yet to reach
peak earning years) and your employer offers the new Roth 401(k),
consider it. You won't get any up-front tax reduction. But after
you retire, qualified distributions will be tax-free.
- If you're
self-employed, consider a small business retirement account such
as a SEP-IRA, SIMPLE IRA, Individual 401(k) or other qualified
retirement plan. Contributions are tax-deductible and grow tax-deferred.
If you open a qualified retirement account by Dec. 31, you have
until the day you file next year, including extensions, to make
this year's contribution.
- Be sure
to make your annual IRA contribution. Even though you have
until next April 15 to make your 2007 contribution, the sooner
the better -- your money will have more time to benefit from potential
long-term compound growth. Then, make your 2008 contribution early
next year. Consider a Roth IRA if you're eligible, especially
if you're not eligible for a deductible traditional IRA contribution.
If you're not eligible for a Roth today, you might want to make
a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA anyway, as recently
passed tax legislation allows anyone to convert to a Roth IRA
starting in 2010 without any income restrictions, though you'll
still have to pay taxes on the earnings.
- If you're
age 70 1/2 or older and required to take minimum distributions
from your retirement accounts, don't forget to do so before year-end.
If you just turned 70 1/2 this year, you have until April 1, 2008,
to take your first required minimum distribution. However, waiting
to do so means you'll need to take two distributions in 2008,
which will boost next year's taxable income. A little multiyear
planning using the tax estimator at www.schwab.com/tax can help.
Education:
Two Tax-Preferred Savings Plans
- Coverdell
Education Savings Accounts: If you're eligible, you can
contribute up to $2,000 to a Coverdell account on behalf of a
child. Contributions grow tax-free and qualified K-12 and higher-education-related
withdrawals are tax-free. You have until next April 15, but if
you make the contribution by Dec. 31, it will count as a gift
for this year instead of next year.
- State-sponsored
529 plans: Anyone, regardless of income, can contribute up
to $60,000 ($120,000 for a couple) this year, without incurring
gift taxes, if you make an election to have the gift treated as
though it were made over five years. You don't have to invest
in your own state's plan. But if your state offers an income tax
deduction on in-state 529 plan contributions, then that's another
reason to make your contribution by Dec. 31. Still, it's a good
idea to compare state plans -- especially if you live in a state
with no deduction, such as California.
Giving:
Five Tax-Smart Tips
- Act before
year-end. You can give up to $12,000 each to as many individuals
as you wish this year and pay no gift tax. Spouses can "split"
gifts for a total of $24,000 per beneficiary, per year. Gifts
beyond that are taxable, but only to the extent they exceed $1
million over a donor's life. The lucky recipient of the gift owes
no gift or income tax, and doesn't even have to report the gift
unless it comes from outside the United States.
- Pay someone's
education or medical bills. You can also make unlimited payments
directly to medical providers or educational institutions on behalf
of others without incurring a taxable gift or dipping into your
$1 million lifetime gift tax exemption.
- Shift
income to tax-advantaged children. Consider gifting appreciated
securities and stocks whose dividends are taxed at low long-term
capital gains rates to children age 18 or older, because they
pay tax at their own rate -- likely 5 percent (and headed to 0
percent in 2008-2010 before expiring in 2011). (1)
- Give
appreciated securities to charities by year-end. Consider
donating appreciated securities that you've held for more than
a year for a full fair-market-value deduction and no capital gains
tax. If you give to a donor-advised fund (such as the Schwab Charitable)
by Dec. 31, you get the tax break this year and can take your
time deciding how best to distribute your gift.
- Donate
from your IRA. If you're at least 70 1/2 years of age, you
can donate up to $100,000 from your IRA directly to charity income-tax-free
for 2007. That's likely better than taking a taxable distribution
and deduction.
All
of the Above?
Whether
some or all of these suggestions fit your situation, we're only
scratching the surface here. Get advice from a qualified planner,
if you need it.
After you decide
what to do this year, resolve to make financial planning a year-round
exercise going forward (you've probably got better things to do
around the holidays). That way, it'll be easier to check your progress,
update your plan and, if necessary, take action long before the
ball falls in Times Square on New Year's Eve.
For the online
version of this story, please click to go to Market
Insight, the Research and Strategies publication of Schwab.com.
|
FAQs: Is Natalie just
another Suze Orman?
Q&A
with Natalie Pace, founder and CEO, Women’s Investment Network,
LLC, dba NataliePace.com, on what differentiates NataliePace.com
from the other financial news and information sources.
Question:
What’s the difference between you and Suze Orman?
Natalie: Suze
blazed the trail and got people thinking about their money. I am
asking people to think about the power of their money to
transform their own lives and the world at large. Our world and
our lives look the way they look as a result of the things we invest
our time and money in. Many people own tobacco companies (without
even knowing it), when they’d rather be investing in solar energy.
My ezine and strategies make it easy and effortless to put your
money where your heart is – to take 136 billion dollars out of the
tobacco industry and invest it in healthy lives and a healthy planet.
If we’d all done this 10 years ago, everyone’s homes would be powered
by clean energy because those companies would have had the investment
dollars to develop their products and put them in Home Depot. Ever
wonder how tobacco companies stayed alive while every state in the
U.S. was suing them? With your money.
Is that what
you mean by adding a splash of green to Wall Street and transforming
lives on Main Street?
Yes, that is
my mission and vision to create a group of enlightened investors
out of the 100 million Americans who have stock holdings! And the
great news is that my ezine is proving that going green creates
green – for your own wallet. But the message is not limited to that
to socially conscious investing – it is about empowering individuals
to educate themselves and understand not only how to make money,
but also how to protect their nest egg properly, so that they are
never over-exposed in any one asset class. If you have all of your
holdings in real estate or stock, you are too vulnerable in the
event of a downturn. You can be into dirty coal, gas-guzzling cars
and absinthe and still benefit from this ezine, with regard to the
news and information you get from our ongoing market reporting.
At least you’ll know how to cover your assets, which is where most
people get into trouble with investing.
Speaking
of covering your assets, why do you use so much sexual innuendo
in your writing?
Many people
have fear around money. I call it "investing with stomach acid."
I touch pleasure points when I talk stocks to titillate the endorphins,
to start touching pleasure points in your brain when you think about
money. Once you come to love prosperity, then you can embody it
in a healthy way. When people start investing with heart and soul
and wisdom, instead of fear and greed, this world will become a
very, very beautiful place. I also want to transform their personal
ability to earn greater returns by making money a pleasurable experience
for them. When you trade with fear, the odds are that you are buying
high and selling low. That is what fear does, even though it is
the exact opposite thing that everyone knows – with their brain
– to do. When you invest in companies that have products and services
that you know and love, then you know the value of your investment
and stand a better chance of being on the winning buy low; sell
high side of the Wall Street tennis match.
What does
it mean when organizations, like TipsTraders.com, rank you as the
#1 stock picker?
That means that
the companies I report on are making readers who invest in those
companies rich! I was the first on Fox News, back at the IPO in
2004, to say, "Invest in Google. It’s a stock you’re going
to want to own." At the IPO, most Wall Street pundits were
pooh-poohing the stock. I found MySpace when they had less than
35 million users. Taser International was my 2003 Company of the
Year, before it went on to earn up to 9000% gains for investors.
In fact, my 2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted
up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to
215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), respectively. MySpace, my 2006
Company of the Year, has been a large part of News Corp’s success
with shareholders. Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of
the Year, has lost money. So three out of five are superperformers,
one is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s
the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.
Why do you
tell so much about your personal story in your articles?
When I first
got married, my Chinese mother in law sent me into a fish market
to buy "fresh fish" for dinner. She’s a fantastic cook,
and a VERY discriminating person. I wanted to do a great job, even
though I didn’t know the first thing about buying fish, let alone
at a Chinese fish market where everyone spoke Cantonese – a language
I did not understand at all. There were literally hundreds of options
to choose from, and I was clueless. I asked the guy beind the counter.
This young buck, who knew as much about cooking fish as I did, looked
back at his boss, winked, and then held up a ridiculously large
fish, saying that my mother-in-law would want to cook that one.
I’m talking about a 50-pound fish that almost crushed him when he
held it over his head! A brain-dead idiot could have seen that he
was trying to take as much money as possible from me, just to impress
his boss. I went back out to the car empty-handed, rather than spend
our life savings on that fish. We all had a good laugh.
Unfortunately,
that is the way that most brokerages -- real estate, mortgage and
stock – are set up. There is a high turnover in the profession,
and the person who greets you is incentivized to sell you the biggest,
not the best, fish.
I tell my stories
because parables are more fun than flow charts. The fact that these
stories are true will, I hope, inspire others to believe that if
I can do it, you can do it. I am really living the life of my dreams,
and so can you. If a copper miner’s daughter can become the #1 stock
picker in the U.S., you, too, can start investing in the life you
adore, put your money where your heart is, trade with wisdom, and
earn fantastic gains while you sleep.
Why do you
place so much emphasis on the nest egg as opposed to the Stocks
on Steroids?
No one should
be daytrading their future. Juggling with your nest egg means that
it could crack and splat. When you have your assets properly allocated
within your nest egg, keeping a percent equal to your age in safer
investments, like CDs, money markets and bonds, you can then take
on higher risk with a smaller percentage, with the goal of achieving
higher gains. So, have a nest egg, and then have a smaller, high
performance account for your Stocks on Steroids. Also, do as much
of your trading as possible in tax-protected individual retirement
accounts. And remember, CASH was the top-performing asset class
in 2000. Bonds were in 2002. Stocks were in 1999. Real estate had
a fantastic run between 2002 and 2005, but has been softening in
the last two years.
Why don’t
you own all of the stocks that you feature in your ezine?
I am a journalist,
not a money manager, which means that it is actually illegal for
me to own all of the stocks that I feature. Journalism is built
upon the foundation of fair and balanced reporting, and if I were
just reporting on stocks that I owned, that is called front-loading.
In other words, if I buy stocks, and then tell you about them, and
then you buy them, pushing the share price up, I’d make a lot of
money, but that isn’t a legal way to get rich. It is illegal to
trade on information that is not publicly available, and if I know
I’m doing a feature article that could push the price up then I’d
be guilty of insider trading. I can own some of the companies
I report on, but only if I purchase them after I report on
the companies (or have owned them for awhile before I decide to
do an article). Any trading I do always has to occur after my articles
are made available to you, not before!
If I were a
money manager -- and with the returns on the companies I’ve featured
it would be relatively easy for me to get a job like that -- I would
be helping rich people get richer and making a lot of income for
myself. I have made a different choice, however. My choice was to
add a splash of green to Wall Street and transform lives on Main
Street by becoming the most trusted name in financial news. The
income of a journalist is dismal compared to that of a hedge fund
manager. But the lifestyle of doing exactly what you love is priceless,
and in the long run of a lifetime, I’m confident that I’ll not only
make more money with this approach -- by selling books and DVDs
designed to help the average investor succeed -- but I’ll also be
very happy with my contributions to your life and to society at
large. Living the life you love is a fantastic reward, and I truly
wake up every day happy to be alive and in charge of the career
that I have made for myself.
Fast
Facts:
- 50% of companies
featured as Natalie’s Company of the Month between October 2006
and May 2007 have more than doubled. Avg. return = 85.2%, as of
10.31.07.
- 48% of the
companies featured as Natalie’s Company of the Month between 2002
and 2005 -- 25 out of 52 companies – DOUBLED or more from the
time they were first featured to the time they were taken off
of Natalie’s Hot News on Cool Stocks list.
- The investment
club that Natalie founded with a group of soccer moms doubled
their investments between the time of the founding in January
of 2002 and when Natalie cashed out in April of 2004.
- Natalie’s
personal returns in 2001 were almost triple her investment – without
shorting -- which is what lead many of her girlfriends to beg
her to "teach us what you know."
- In 2000,
Natalie avoided the advice of a stock broker to "diversify"
her real estate gains into 4 mutual funds – an energy fund, anchored
by Enron, a telecommunications fund, anchored by Global Crossing,
an international fund, anchored by Japan, a technology fund anchored
by AOL. Instead, she kept the money in CDs, in a year when cash
was the top performing asset class, at 4%.
Testimonials
"I've
had a staggering year (any given day to this point 80%-90% gains)
based almost solely on her picks." Anonymous, Investment Consultant
"My
husband and I spent our 30th anniversary at Natalie's Get Rich and
EnRich Retreat, and it was the turning point in our lives. Ten years
ago I was diagnosed with cancer, and we have been searching for
a better life for ourselves ever since. But it was not until Natalie
and the Living the Rich Life Retreat helped us focus on defining
and attracting the life we really wanted - from all perspectives,
including investing - that we really started moving forward. I've
lost 30 pounds and am now doing work I love with incredible people,
and my husband is becoming more successful with his investing."
Nancy
"Natalie
helped to reawaken my passions and dreams after the drab year I
had following my accident. My goals are once again in sight."
Erik
|
Are
You Gambling With Your Nest Egg -- Without Even Knowing It?
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks list.
The
Hot News lists below feature 44 companies earning great gains, versus
just nine that are headed in the opposite direction. 48% of the
companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005
-- 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed them
in our feature article to the time when I took the company off of
the Hot News on Cool Stocks list, and the majority of the remaining
52% well outperformed the marketplace. (See the chart in the article,
"25
of Our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
Additionally,
the market performance of the companies that are featured in my
Hot News on Cool Stocks list has kept me at the top of over 830
A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com.
I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position. TipsTraders.com listed
me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, in 2006 and 2007.
Check out
the performance of our featured companies over the last year! 5
out of 9 companies – over half – doubled or more.
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
Oct
2006
|
+242%
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
Nov
2006
|
+163%
|
Gap Stores
|
December
2006
|
+5%
|
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
2007
Company of the Year
|
+160%
|
Apple
Computer
|
February
2007
|
+133%
|
Wisdom
Tree (ETFs)
|
March
2007
|
-67%
|
World
Water & Solar
|
April
2007
|
+226%
|
Trina
Solar
|
May 2007
|
+22.5%
|
Novastar
Financial (short)
|
June 2007
|
-88% (we
expected it to lose $)
|
TOTAL
Avg. GAINS
|
|
+108%
|
Current
Economic Conditions Commentary
(This
report is a reprint of our December mid-month update, with updated
statistics and data. Don’t overlook the new numbers or skim this
update. The information is critical going forward!)
Ever wonder
how O.J. Simpson can still play golf when he owes $33 million dollars
to the Goldman Family? Because he knew how to cover his assets.
This is an extreme example of how important it is to understand
the most fundamental rules of investing. Even though you will never
be involved in a scandal like O.J., covering your assets is just
as effective in market downturns, lawsuits, job loss and the current
pension restructuring that is going on in legacy corporations, such
as we are seeing in the airlines and auto companies.
People lost
their fortunes during the DOT COM bust. Speculators in real estate
are losing their homes today. And I am telling you that the challenges
in the United States economy today require your sober and serious
attention NOW. If you are smart and prepared, you should be fine
going into the next few years. If you lost money during the DOT
COM bust and you did not take the time to understand how to avoid
that in the future, you are just as vulnerable today as you were
then. Needless to say, if you have no clue what you’re invested
in and are just "trusting your broker" (who might have
up to 500 other clients), you need to keep reading. Brokers can
and should be well-versed in all of their company products, but
few have a crystal ball or the time and experience to do high level
investigative financial journalism on the companies their clients
are interested in investing in. Steve Forbes has a different job
from Charles Schwab.
Real estate,
stocks, bonds, national debt, the value of the dollar, all of these
wax and wane, but there are those who ride the tides for steady
gains and those whose fortunes are sunk because their boat had leaks
to begin with. So my question to you is, "Are you gambling
on your investment future -- without even knowing it?"
I am writing
in earnest about something so important that I need you to stop
whatever you are doing and read this article now. I know you have
heard phrases like this bantered about by other people, but when
I utter them, I am dead serious. Look at my track record. Look at
my performance. Look at my history. You know I know my business.
You know my stock newsletter pays off in spades. You know I’m optimistic
and bubbly and a fundamentally happy person.
When I turn
serious on you, it is because there are conditions coming up that
you need to be aware of. When I tell you that the odds are exceedingly
high that you are gambling much if not most of your nest egg and
investment activity, you should take it as a call to action. I do
not put myself on the line and make claims idly. It may sound like
a brash statement, but it is a true and provable one nonetheless.
I began talking like this Christmas of 1999, just a few months before
the DOT COM recession began. No one wanted to hear about it then
either.
Here is a mental
test. Do you have any idea how much of your nest egg is at risk
and how much is safe from a downturn? Did your investments crash
in 2001? Have you had difficulty getting rich on the software you
purchased or the program you signed up for? Is your ARM about to
break?
If you lost
money in 2000 on Internet stocks or do not have a clue what holdings
you have in your retirement plan now, or have a pattern of chasing
money – coming to the real estate party or the Internet party late,
buying high and then suffering losses -- whether you have $10,000
or $10 million invested in your account, you need to move heaven
and earth to be at my retreat this January. Here is why. At the
retreat, we will look at what is hot, what is not, and the danger
zones that you need to avoid NOW before the real estate implosion
starts to impact GDP growth (which will impact the stock market).
We will carefully restructure your nest egg so that you are better
protected against a downturn. You will learn sound, higher performing,
less risky alternatives that could double or triple or redouble
again the returns you could be enjoying. And you will learn which
industry is poised to soar above the rest, no matter what the market
conditions are.
Your current
investment strategy is going to deliver a certain result for you
over the next year, decade and your lifetime. If it is not properly
allocated, you could actually lose money, instead of earning gains
while you sleep. A better strategy could deliver as much as ten
times the ultimate wealth creation, income and security. And it
is not more money invested. It is simply getting more performance
for the money that you work so hard to earn and invest.
I have put together
a 4-day process that is extremely unique, powerful and result certain.
On day one we are going to play the Billionaire Game. Once you start
getting specific about how you will handle wealth on a daily basis,
you can actually create the blueprint and step into that life. In
the evening of the first day, I have two billionaire experts – one
in real estate and one in financial services – who have handled
deals valued at over a billion in aggregate. These experts will
talk about how multi million dollar deals are handled.
On day two,
we will take what we have discovered about what being rich means
to you, and you will restructure your nest egg and investing habits
to get you there. The evening will be crowned with a sermon that
will strike lightning in your soul.
On day three,
you will practice my easy 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits
in your Stocks on Steroids portfolio and learn how to create stock
report cards and great gains for yourself.
Now I have to
stop for a minute and introduce the secret weapon that is going
to make this work so well for you, not just in the moment, but now
and forever in your everyday life. My keynote speaker is none other
than Michael Bernard Beckwith. You probably know him from his appearances
on Oprah and Larry King, from the blockbuster video The Secret
and the fact that many of the celebrities, sports and business greats
throughout the world turn to him for spiritual guidance and balance.
Once you learn my strategies and hear the Rev strike lightning in
your soul, you can address your investment future with maturity
and confidence and without the fear and stomach acid that normally
cost you so dearly.
By the time
you leave that room on the fourth day, you will no longer be the
same person. Even if you have been following my ezine to a T, I
will teach you how to think how I think, so that you can have the
same level of success in all of your investments, as well as in
your daily life. I cannot promise you will make a billion dollars,
but I can tell you that if you have enough capital in play and you
invest with the foundation and strategies we will teach you, it
is certainly possible. The one thing I will promise is that these
four days will absolutely be the most enriching, the most important
and the most valuable four days of your investment life, or I do
not deserve to keep your modest registration fee.
Speaking of
which, I am not charging the $5,000 or $10,000 that most investment
training programs ask. I am not even charging half of that. I am
creating a value-priced, valuable retreat where I can work deeply,
intimately and personally with my most motivated, serious and ambitious
subscribers. And the information you will receive and experiences
and opportunities you will enjoy are quite simply not available
anywhere else – not in universities, other seminars or even your
brokerage.
If this resonates
with you, sign up online now by clicking on the Get Rich and EnRich
banner ad. I am holding a limited amount of rooms at a deliriously
low rate for an oceanfront hotel. Mark your calendar right now and
clear it for the dates January 2-5, 2007. The place is Los Angeles,
California, Santa Monica to be exact, the Loews Hotel on the beach,
to be even more specific.
You need this
information as we go into 2008, especially given all of the economic
pressures that we are facing. There is no downside to you attending
my January retreat, outside of the travel and modest hotel. If I
do not deliver more than I promised, you can ask for a refund. If
I do deliver, your wealth will multiply dramatically and your life
will change immediately and forever.
This is the
first time EVER that I have had a world renowned keynote speaker
at my 4-day intensive, highly limited, wealth building super summit.
I do not have another retreat on the calendar because 2008 is devoted
to the launch of my new book. You do not want to miss this unique
opportunity. You may never get the chance again to experience Rev
Michael, Dr. Rickie and I in such an intimate gathering.
REGISTER
NOW
using the following promo codes to receive almost $1000 off the
regular price. Click on Register Now or go to NataliePace.com, click
on the Get Rich and EnRich banner ad, and register online there.
PROMO
CODES:
RetreatPeak
($1295 for one person)
RetreatPeak2
($1880 for two people)
The promo codes
are case sensitive.
This offer is
valid now through December 31, 2007 only. Give yourself the gift
of a new life this New Year. You deserve it!
Wisdom + the
law of attraction = the rich life. It is that simple. It is that
much fun. You’ll enjoy one of the most beautiful, warm beaches in
the world! It was 80 degrees and sunny today in Santa Monica!
|
View of
the famous Santa Monica Pier from the Loews Santa Monica Beach
Hotel. |
|
Poolside,
overlooking the Pacific Ocean, at the Loews Santa Monica Beach
Hotel. |
Market Report:
The
Federal Open Market Committee decided on September 18, 2007 to lower
its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.
The big, fat rate cut thrilled investors. The stock market immediately
rallied on the news. For Halloween, the Feds decided to give investors
some candy, with another 25 basis point reduction in the Fed Fund
Rate. Investors fell in love with stocks and the markets soared
on the news. Continued histrionic headlines and inflated statistics
on the severity and pervasiveness of the subprime problems spooked
investors in November, for the worst sell-off of the year. The Feds
responded by cutting rates again in December. The rate currently
stands at 4-1/4 percent.
General
Stock Market Performance
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 12.24.2007
|
Gains 23
& 11 months
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,549.33
|
+25% & +8.6%
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,713.50
|
+21% & +12%
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,496.45
|
+18% & +5.6%
|
FYI: we predicted
Nasdaq to be the 2007 superstar performer earlier back in November
of 2006. Click on Wow! Dow! Or Nasdaq
Now! Article, from vol. 3, issue 11, to review that
article.
The Bottom
Line always is that getting rich is a matter of balance, strategy
and patience. You should not be day-trading your nest egg. If you
don’t know what the proper balance of real estate, stocks, bonds
and Beanie Babies you should have in your investment portfolio,
then your next investment should be in education.
The Writer’s
Guild Strike Update
Formal
negotiations from November 26 broke down. Strike continues.
You’ll
see that I’ve made my choice to keep media on the Hot News List
for now, though I continue to monitor the situation carefully (but
not obsessively).
Peace and Prosperity,
Natalie Pace
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: The Big, Fat Rate Cut Continues! The Feds knocked
the rates down on the past 3 consecutive meetings, in September,
October and December. The federal funds rate is currently at 4-1/4%.
According to the Federal Open Market Committee’s press release,
"Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing,
reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some
softening in business and consumer spending… Recent developments,
including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have
increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic
growth and inflation." (If you haven’t read my message above
and taken it seriously, you should reread it and consider coming
to my retreat in January 2008 where you will learn to protect
your assets in case of a recession. Remember the pain of 2000-2002,
and consider that you need more than a Bandaid this time around.)
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the December 11, 2007 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2007-2008 calendar is: January 29-30,
2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 18, 2008 (Tuesday), April 29-30,
2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 24-25, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
August 5, 2008 (Tuesday), September 16, 2008 (Tuesday), October
28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 16, 2008 (Tuesday).
The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee decided to increase
the number of 2-day sessions from two to four in 2007 is an indicator
of the concern in the economy at this juncture.
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out
the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many
wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money
managers, economists, respected money gurus, real estate veterans
and CEOs! Be sure to calendar the dates of the mid-month Hot News
on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our special
Company of the Year January 2008 ezine. Get more information on
how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under
the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
Survey Results:
Check
out our article on the Best Gifts for Guys and Women in this month’s
ezine. Great holiday tips are to be found there.
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. Your investments and portfolio
should take into account your age, your retirement goals, your risk
tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your
portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek
to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert,
don’t bet the farm on the stock market.
NataliePace.com
is NOT a brokerage and doesn’t operate or act like one. We are an
online media service with a mission of providing the news and information
you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal
prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
The
Hot News on Cool Stocks List
Full
disclosure: I have listed the companies that I currently own under
the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot Stocks
List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy.
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
Citigroup
(C)
Conergy
(CEYHF)
Echelon
(ELON)
Genentech
(DNA)
Smith
& Nephew (SNN)
UQM
Technologies (UQM)
U.S.
Gold (UXG)
WisdomTree
(WSDT)
Yahoo
(YHOO)
Zoltec
(ZOLT)
Recent
Additions:
Only those
stocks that are highlighted above and below are trading at a price
that we consider to be attractive.
American Superconductor,
Energy Conversion Devices and Zoltec were added on December
3, 2007.
Recent
Deletions:
Jet Blue
was deleted on December 3, 2007 with negative performance.
Disney (+31%),
National Health Investors (flat), News Corp. (+33%), Opsware (+690%),
Siri (mixed) and Time Warner (flat performance) were all deleted
on December 26, 2007. See below for details. (The details on each
deleted company are listed below the Hot News list.)
Hot News
on Cool Stocks List
Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
12.26.07 |
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
Altair Nanotechnology
RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$3.11
|
$4.47
|
$5.45
$2.48
|
+51%
|
Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6. The
price was up sharply on unusually high volume on 10.23.07.
The U.S. Senate approved a military funding budget that included
funding for two cutting-edge nanotechnology research and development
projects that Altairnano is conducting, providing funding
for a staff of 90 highly qualified individuals in Reno, according
to Altairnano President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan
J. Gotcher, PhD. Completed a $40 million private placement
of its common stock to Al Yousuf LLC, at $3.50 per share,
on 11.30.07. Altair supplies the batteries to Phoenix's advanced
battery-electric, zero-emission Sports Utility Truck, which
can travel at freeway-speeds while carrying five passengers
and a full payload. Phoenix already has 500 orders and just
signed a letter of intent to start producing cars in Mexico
for delivery to Mexico, Latin America and India.
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$24.71
|
$32.04
|
$32.04
$9.20
|
+30%
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, iss.
12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI),
Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature
Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more
energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables
electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper
cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground
real estate available for other uses – including future power
upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar
annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in
the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells.
American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $180 million,
with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC
expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to
50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.
|
Apple Computer
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$85.38
($83.93 on 2.27.07)
|
$198.95
|
$200.00
$62.70
|
+133% &
+137%
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Next earnings report will be on January 22, 2008 at 5:00 p.m.
ET (after markets close).
Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt is
on the Apple board of directors, as is Nobel Laureate winner,
Al Gore. The craze over the iPhone, iPod and all things Apple,
and the clout that Jobs is gaining with his alliances with
Disney and Google should keep Apple at the top of the technology
performers over the next few years at minimum. Apple is a
company you’re going to want to own – and everyone wishes
they’d had the prescience to buy in at a better price. On
10.22.07, Apple announced revenue of $6.22 billion and net
quarterly profit of $904 million, or $1.01 per diluted share.
These results compare to revenue of $4.84 billion and net
quarterly profit of $542 million, or $.62 per diluted share,
in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 33.6 percent, up
from 29.2 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales
accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue.
Apple shipped 2,164,000 Macintosh(R)
computers, representing 34 percent growth over the year-ago
quarter and exceeding the previous quarterly record for Mac(R)
shipments by 400,000. The Company sold 10,200,000 iPods during
the quarter, representing 17 percent growth over the year-ago
quarter. Quarterly iPhone(TM) sales were 1,119,000, bringing
cumulative fiscal 2007 sales to 1,389,000.
"We are very pleased to have generated
over $24 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion in net income
in fiscal 2007," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We're looking
forward to a strong December quarter as we enter the holiday
season with Apple's best products ever."
"Apple ended the fiscal year with
$15.4 billion in cash and no debt," said Peter Oppenheimer,
Apple's CFO. "Looking ahead to the first quarter of fiscal
2008, we expect revenue of about $9.2 billion and earnings
per diluted share of about $1.42."
|
AU Optronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
AUO
|
$16.92
|
$18.70
|
$22.48
$12.73
|
+20%
|
On Sept. 6, 2007, AUO announced
another record high, with revenue up 9.9% from the previous
month. On a year-over-year comparison, August 2007 revenues
increased significantly by 89%. Shipments of large-sized panels(a)
used in desktop monitor, notebook PC, LCD TV and other applications
for August also set a new record of 7.23 million units, a
5.7% increase from July 2007. Shipments of small-and-medium-sized
panels broke the record as well and presented a 22.1% increase
from the previous month, to 14.59 million units. Announced
3Q 2007 earnings on 10.22.07 of US$4.2 billion consolidated
revenue and consolidated US$691 million net income (unaudited).
Large-sized panel shipments increased by 14.3% to 22.26 million
from 2Q2007, while shipments of small- and medium-sized panel
amounted to 40.70 million with a 26.3% Q over Q increase,
both once again set record high for the company's single-quarter
unit shipment. AU Optronics Corp. ("AUO") is one of the top
three largest manufacturers* of large-size thin film transistor
liquid crystal display panels ("TFT-LCD"), with approximately
20.2%* of global market share. The company is based out of
Taiwan.
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS
4.31%!
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
$30.70
(12.3.07)
|
$30.42
|
$57.00
$29.34
|
-39%
|
Refer
to the M&A
Mania
article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal.
Citigroup, like all of the financial services industry, will
continue to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that
might be attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect
wild gains in the short term with this company, and there
could be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again,
the price is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus
horizon, not if you’re looking to post great gains in the
next 12 months.
Citigroup
announced on May 10, 2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out
two new investment products -- Structured Investment Accounts
-- for the Chinese consumer that would allow him/her to invest
in equities or currencies, with a principal protection feature.
Just a few years ago, all banks in China were state-owned
enterprises. Citigroup was first mover in the Chinese consumer
equity marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07.
Akbank currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a
premier, full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private
bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6
billion and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the world’s
third largest bank by assets and the nation’s largest financial
institution. Citigroup acquired servicing rights for $45 billion
worth of loans formerly held in ACC’s Ameriquest company.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Citigroup announced
on November 3, 2007, that Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO,
will leave the company. Robert Rubin has been named Chairman
of the Board. Sir Win Bischoff has been named acting Chief
Executive Officer. Citi will review fourth quarter and
full-year 2007 results on Tuesday, January 15, 2008, at 8:30
AM (EST).
On Oct. 15,
2007, Citigroup reported net income for the 2007 third quarter
of $2.21 billion, or $0.44 per share, a decline of 60% from
the prior-year quarter.
|
Conergy
Based
out of Germany
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
CEYHF
|
$44.75
|
$35.20
|
$96.14
$26.20
|
-21%
|
See the
Wind
Power
article in vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements
with Suntech Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their
global systems integration.
|
Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$50.01
|
$59.54
$23.02
|
+48%
|
Vanguard seems to be in the right
countries, and within those countries, in the right growing
sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$34.49
|
$40.73
$22.83
|
+16%
|
Announces earnings on 1.23.2008.
See the articles, "eBay’s
Skype Outpaces News Corp’s MySpace," in volume
3, issue 9, "Executives
of the Year"
in January 2007, which featured CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss.
1). eBay reported record consolidated Q3-07 net revenues of
$1.89 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of
30%. GAAP operating loss was $938 million in Q3-07, representing
(50%) of net revenues, compared to GAAP operating income of
$339 million in Q3-06. GAAP net loss in Q3-07 was $936 million,
or $0.69 loss per diluted share. Both the GAAP operating loss
and GAAP net loss were the result of the previously announced
goodwill impairment charge related to eBay's acquisition of
Skype. (This can be a tax benefit, and Skype delivered record
net revenues, excluding the impairment charge, and a record
increase of registered users – to 246 million – which can
then be sent over to the eBay marketplace. Don’t be fooled
by headlines and young writers making silly assumptions.)
The company purchased approximately 14.8 million shares of
its common stock at a total cost of approximately $500 million
during the quarter out of its authorized stock repurchase
program of up to $2 billion by January 2009. According to
eBay President and CEO, Meg Whitman, "eBay International,
PayPal Merchant Services, StubHub, classifieds and our advertising
businesses all performed above our expectations." Skype net
revenues totaled a record $98 million in Q3-07, representing
a year-over-year growth rate of 96%. Skype had 246 million
registered user accounts at the end of Q3-07, representing
a year-over-year increase of 81%.
Note: The GAAP effective tax rate
for Q3-07 was (4%), compared to 26% for Q3-06 and 23% in Q2-07.
Strong management and talent in the executive suite. The company's
cash, cash equivalents, and investments totaled $4.44 billion
at the end of Q3-07.
Shopping.com's traffic to merchants
increased 61 percent over last year's Black Friday, November
24, 2006, exceeding industry expectations. According to Forrester
Research, online payments are predicted to top $33 billion
this season, a 21 percent increase over holiday 2006, signaling
a strong season for eCommerce. Consumer spending habits this
Black Friday showed that soft goods categories like Gifts
and Flowers, Clothing and Accessories, and Health and Beauty
continue to see the most growth online. On Shopping.com, traffic
to merchants in the Gifts and Flowers and Clothing and Accessories
categories throughout the Thanksgiving holiday grew by 57
and 52 percent respectively year-over-year.
|
Echelon
RISK:
MED/HIGH
|
Yes
|
ELON
|
$20.04
$16.13
(12.14.07)
|
$19.96
|
$32.49
$7.19
|
Flat &
+24%
|
Read the
article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, iss. 8. Governor Schwarzenegger (CA) took Secretary
General of the U.N. Ban Ki-Moon on a tour of Echelon’s HQ
in Silicon Valley the week before ELON confirmed an order
from Russia valued at $35 million. What other orders could
come into this company that reported sales of $26.7 million
in the 2nd quarter, over 19.4 million a year ago. On July
10, 2007, Echelon signed a contract with McDonald's to help
it reduce energy costs and improve efficiency. Reported 3rd
quarter results on 10.23.07 of $24.7 million in revenues compared
to revenues of $13.3 million for the same period in 2006.
The GAAP net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2007
was $5.4 million, or $0.14 cents per share, compared to net
loss of $6.3 million a year ago. "We are still on track
to achieve non-GAAP profitability in the fourth quarter. We
believe our strategies have positioned us well for the remainder
of the year and for 2008," said Ken Oshman, Echelon's CEO
and Chairman. "Our infrastructure product line did not
grow as expected, especially in the Americas – and it will
receive special attention in coming months."
|
Energy Conversion Devices
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
ENER
|
$26.50
|
$36.07
|
$40.10
$22.26
|
+36%
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12.
|
GAP
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
GPS
|
$20.30
$17.50 (3.16.07)
|
$21.23
|
$21.93
$15.13
|
+5% &
+21%
|
See the article, "Gap’s
Inc(RED)ible Campaign,"
from vol. 3, iss. 12. Made Zachs buy list for Growth and Income
on Nov. 2007. The Gap hired Todd Oldham as the design
creative director for Old Navy, and immediately the television
ads began to pop with sensuality and style. Who will helm
The Gap’s creative ship? It’s hard to get too excited about
a man whose last job was in Canada at Shoppers Drug Mart,
but perhaps Glenn Murphy, 45, Gap Inc.'s Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer, is a lot more fashionable than his pedigree
would show. The Oldham hiring was genius and net earnings
are up. Beat analyst estimates on 11.21.07. According to the
3Q earnings report, released on 11.21.07, net earnings for
the third quarter increased 26 percent to $238 million, or
$0.30 per share on a diluted basis, compared with $189 million,
or $0.23 per share on a diluted basis, for the third quarter
of last year. Third quarter net sales were $3.9 billion, which
is flat compared with the third quarter of last year. The
company's online sales for the third quarter increased 36
percent to $247 million, compared with $182 million for the
third quarter of last year.
In the "show me your friends
and I’ll tell you who you are" category, the friends
surrounding Gap these days are mighty, powerful and successful.
You’ve got Goldman Sachs advising them on the turnaround strategy.
GAP is one of an elite group of companies that are attached
to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project of Bono and Bobby Shriver,
alongside Apple, American Express, Motorola, Emporio Armani
and more. The ongoing commitment to Bono and Bobby Shriver’s
PRODUCT (RED) and having Goldman Sachs in their corner really
sets the stage for some promising surprises for this legacy
clothing retailer.
|
Genentech
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
$72.60
$68.06
(12.26.07)
|
$68.06
|
$89.41
$65.35
|
+406%
-7%
|
Announced
its 2007 third quarter earnings on October 15, 2007: U.S.
product sales of $2,155 million, an 18 percent increase over
U.S. product sales of $1,830 million in the third quarter
of 2006. GAAP operating revenues of $2,908 million, which
include recognition of $3 million of deferred royalty revenue
associated with the acquisition of Tanox, Inc. Avastin sales
are up 37% over 2006, to $597 million for the quarter. Lucentis
is up 29% to $198 million, while Tarceva is flat at about
$101 million in sales. Major growth for a big cap, and trading
at prices not seen in over two years! Purchased Tanox on 1.16.07.
Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. DNA is a Great Blue Chip
Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in
DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate
the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply
to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this
popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs.
Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has
appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is
on track to exceed $2 billion in annual sales in 2007. Tarceva
is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $406 million
in the first three quarters of 2007.
|
Google (Green)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$710.84
|
$747.24
$437.00
|
+736%
|
Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term
portfolio. See my original article, "Google:
the People’s IPO,"
in NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 1, iss. 48. Owns YouTube.com,
one of the most popular sites on the web, which got hit with
a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on 3.13.07. Dr. Eric
Schmidt was one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. The growth continues to be amazing, and the share price
continues to be amazingly volatile! The savvy day-trader would
buy on disappointment and sell on hot headlines. The long-term
investor would buy at the 52-week low and hold to will to
the kids. (Notice that Google is NOT highlighted and is not
considered to be a good buy right now.)
Google reported revenues of $4.23
billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2007, an increase
of 57% compared to the third quarter of 2006 and an increase
of 9% compared to the second quarter of 2007. Traffic Acquisition
Costs totaled $1.22 billion, or 29% of advertising revenues.
GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $1.07 billion
as compared to $925 million in the second quarter of 2007.
Google currently estimates stock-based compensation charges
for grants to employees prior to October 1, 2007 to be approximately
$801 million for 2007. Dilution is expected to be capped at
2%. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were
$13.1 billion at the end of September 2007. There is a laundry
list of insider selling going on at Google. We’ll do a closer
evaluation as it gets closer to the annual report, which was
released on March 1, last year. Until then, if you’re in the
money, we’re still in the Santa Rally. If you’re thinking
to buy, it’s very, very high. When you attach a 54 price to
earnings ratio to a big, fat $216 billion company in a challenging
economic environment, there are more ifs in the investment
than you might be aware of. Google’s great, but so are Ferraris,
and you can buy one for half the price if you wait and time
your buy. Never pay retail!
On a worldwide basis, Google employed
15,916 full-time employees, up from 13,786 full time employees
as of June 30, 2007 – all enjoying the Google 20 (pounds you
gain from all of the free food provided by the company). As
part of their "Do no evil" plan, Google has gone
green, installing solar panels at HQs.
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$9.68
|
$12.69
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
+31%
|
Read "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho and supply Suntech, Sanyo
and Solar-Fabrik. Exiting the fuel cell business, in favor
of solar, according to the fiscal 1st Q 2008 earnings
report. The planned polysilicon manufacturing facility is
still in the financing stages. According to Dustin Shindo,
in the Hoku earnings report of 10.23.07, Hoku "received
letters of credit of $25 million and $45 million for two of
our polysilicon customers, Global Expertise Wafer Division,
a subsidiary of Solar-Fabrik Group, and Suntech, respectively,
to secure their prepayment obligations to us if we achieve
various milestones in the construction and operation of our
planned polysilicon plant." The $13 million line of credit
with Bank of Hawaii has allowed Hoku to commit capital to
the design and engineering of the plant, to purchase long
lead-time items such as the reactors, and to stay on schedule
for our planned 2009 product deliveries, according to a company
press release. Hoku Materials, plans to build and equip a
polysilicon production facility capable of producing up to
2,500 metric tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho.
Hoku Materials estimates the total cost to construct and equip
the polysilicon facility with an annual capacity of 2,500
metric tons will be approximately $300 million. Assuming the
financing can be obtained, Hoku anticipates the availability
of polysilicon beginning in the first half of calendar year
2009. Announced that Merrill Lynch will provide $185 million
in financing for the construction and start-up of its new
polysilicon plant, as long as it secures $35 million in additional
funds, on December 5, 2007. Stock jumped after that report.
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$19.13
|
$27.45
|
$27.99
$16.84
|
+46%
|
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price. Announces earnings on 1.15.08. AMD
is fighting back in court and by slashing costs. The price
war is tough on both, but easier for Goliath to win.
A Good Blue Chip long term hold for your portfolio, with dividends.
On 10.16.07, Intel announced 3rd quarter earnings:
revenue of $10.1 billion, operating income of $2.2 billion,
net income of $1.9 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of
31 cents. "A combination of great products, strong and growing
worldwide demand, and operational efficiency from our ongoing
restructuring efforts led to record third-quarter revenue
and a 64-percent year-over-year gain in operating income,"
said Intel President and CEO Paul Otellini. "Looking forward,
we see each of these elements continuing to improve into the
fourth quarter." Meanwhile, in the third quarter, AMD
reported an operating loss of $226 million, and a net loss
of $396 million, or $0.71 per share. AMD completed a $1.5
billion convertible debt offering and used the net proceeds,
together with available cash, to repay in full the $1.7 billion
outstanding balance of the term loan used to acquire ATI.
|
Johnson & Johnson
DIVIDENDS!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.65
$59.99
|
$67.56
|
$69.41
$59.77
|
+10% & +13%
|
Read the article, "Bionic
Baby Boomers,"
in vol. 4, iss. 7. Johnson & Johnson is a mega-cap corporation
with many products, and a small presence in the hip resurfacing
arena. Growth is 16% annually. Stable, dividend-paying Blue
Chip.
|
Krispy Kreme
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
$2.59 (12.3.07)
|
$3.33
|
$13.83
$2.91
|
-68%
+28%
|
Have you visited the Coffee Bean
and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in
the pastry case? KKD is expanding into Asia – namely Macao,
the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. There are
currently approximately 296 Krispy Kreme stores and 99 satellites
operating system-wide in 41 U.S. states, Australia, Canada,
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, the Philippines,
the Republic of South Korea, United Arab Emirates and the
United Kingdom. If you love their product, KKD’s CEO has proven
to be a turnaround specialist, and he’s done a great job in
the past. KKD caught up with all of their SEC filings as of
1.29.07, and is looking to the future now. Lynn Crump-Caine
(a 30-year McDonald’s veteran) and C. Stephen Lynn (former
Chairman and CEO of Shoney’s and Sonic Corp.) were recently
added as directors. Missed analyst earnings estimates on 9.15.07
for second straight quarter. Revenues for the second quarter
of fiscal 2008 decreased 7.5% to $104.1 million compared to
$112.5 million in the second quarter of last year. Company
Stores revenues decreased 4.7% to $75.3 million, Franchise
revenues were flat at $5.1 million and KKD Supply Chain revenues
decreased 16.8% to $23.7 million. KKD will announce earnings
on 12/6/2007.
|
MEMC Electronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$35.30 (11.11)
|
$92.72
|
$96.08
$31.94
|
+163%
|
MEMC was added to the S&P500
in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. On 10.25, the company reported earnings: 3Q net
sales were $472.8 million, which represents an increase of
7.3% from 3rd quarter 2006 net sales of $ increase of 15.9%.
Net income was $151.5 million. MEMC will receive $2.5 billion
to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers over the
10-year period from Taiwan’s Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC
also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest in
Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of land
of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located within
the Hsinchu Science Park. Supplies silicon ingots to Suntech
Power Holdings, and owns a stake in that company as well.
The CEO has cashed out over $78 million, and plans to continue
to "diversify" his holdings through 2010. Investors
have cashed out over $3 billion. This is colossal insider
selling, however, after decades of solar energy being out
of favor, this may be the first time the investors have been
able to roll out their decades long investments. According
to MEMC’s Chief Executive Officer, Nabeel Gareeb, "Early last
month we announced that a construction incident caused an
abrupt power interruption at our Pasadena polysilicon production
facility. Although the power was quickly recovered, the extended
effects of the incident caused us to lose well over a week's
worth of production, miss our cost projections by the double
digit millions, and delay our expansion. In spite of this
incident and its unanticipated consequences, we are pleased
to report healthy sales and profits during the quarter, and
a strong improvement over the year-ago quarter," said Nabeel
Gareeb, MEMC's chief executive officer. "Cash flow generation
continues to be strong, and cash balances crossed the $1 billion
milestone." Implemented a 500 million share repurchase program
in the 2nd quarter of 2007.
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$36.80
|
$41.33
$25.00
|
+196%
|
Watch Natalie
Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick
Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO,
won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award
(on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list
(for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s
Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS
just gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The
NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It’s a great
product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone
worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal. An October 2006
report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S.
households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband
phone service by 2010. With all of the promising new products
(Skype phones), and the product alliance with Avaya, NetGear
is poised to continue strong growth. Earnings on 10.25.07:
3Q 2007 net revenue increased to Third quarter 2007 net revenue
increased to $191.7 million, 26% year- over-year growth. Net
income increased to $ 13.3 million, as compared to $8 million
in the comparable prior year quarter, 66% year-over-year-growth.
Net revenue by geography: North America, 38%; Europe, Middle-East
and Africa, 52%; Asia Pacific, 10%. Accordng to Mr. Lo, "Revenue
growth was ahead of our prior guidance led by robust back-to-school
sales in North America, and strong demand in EMEA (Europe,
Middle East and Africa) and Asia Pacific regions. Broadband
penetration continues to increase at a steady pace worldwide
among both homes and small businesses."
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK: HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$72.18
$33.00 (4.1.07)
|
$50.08
|
$52.00
$28.68
|
-28% &
+52%
|
NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read vol. 1, iss. 56. Announced 3Q 2007 earnings on 10.25.07.
Net income from continuing operations of $35.9 million (or
$0.59 per share) for the three months ended September 30,
2007, compared with net income from continuing operations
of $159,000 (or $0.00 per share) for the third quarter of
2006. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill,"
and sales have been exploding. OSIP is a partner of Genentech
(DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application
for other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data
has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20
billion annually and it is growing fast. Institutional holdings
of OSIP increased significantly on 11.22.07. Total worldwide
net sales of Tarceva(R) (erlotinib) for the third quarter
of 2007, as reported by the Company's collaborators for Tarceva,
Genentech, Inc. and Roche, were approximately $226 million
representing a 32% growth in global sales compared to the
same period last year. For the nine months ended September
30, 2007 worldwide Tarceva net sales were approximately $635
million representing a 38% increase over the same period last
year. The Company reported total revenues from continuing
operations of $100 million for the third quarter of 2007 compared
to revenues of $57 million for the third quarter of 2006,
an increase of 77%.
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.24
$1.04
(9.1.07)
|
$1.55
|
$1.73
$.73
|
+25% & +49%
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. Reported 3Q 2007 results on November
15, 2007. Who are SatCon’s customers? On June 27, 2007, SatCon
announced that its PowerGate(R) commercial grade inverters
had been installed as an integral part of Google's corporate
headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system
is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United
States. Revenues increased 147% over last year to $21.0 million.
Losses from Operations declined to $1.2 million from $3.5
million in 2006. Sales Order backlog was approximately $47
million at the end of the quarter, a 78% increase over last
year. SATC expects to achieve annual revenues for 2007 on
the order of $55 million compared to 2006 annual revenues
of $34 million, an increase of over 60%.
|
Smith
& Nephew
London,
England
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SNN
|
$60.94
$57.17
(9.16.07)
|
$58.17
|
$67.84
$47.05
|
-4.5%
&
+2%
|
Read the
article in vol.
4, iss. 7. Announced
earnings on 11.1.07. Smith and Nephew are the first movers
in the fast-growing US hip resurfacing marketplace. The company
is based out of London, England, and with a market cap of
$10.57 billion is a good diversification strategy for your
portfolio, in addition to having a piece of an exploding marketplace.
Price-to-cash-flow ratio well below industry average on 9.16.07.
Withdrew
185 of its BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System implants following
a packaging error at a subcontractor on Aug. 16, 2007. Smith
& Nephew's investigation confirms that this problem is
confined to a small number of batches. A number of implants
have already been recovered in their packaging. The devices
have been distributed to a number of countries, including
the UK and the US. Proactive notification is a good sign of
the moral code of the executive suite, but bad products can
be Lawsuit City if they were implanted. This is a developing
story.
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$56.58
|
$64.84
$20.23
|
+223%
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I
did on the Forbes.com
Video Network.
Sohu was selected
as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS)
for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Could be some bumps
in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should
ultimately be worth it. Share price jumped in early July 2007
and has been strong since! Don’t get sucked into buying at
the high P/E of 82.
|
SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green
& Chinese Co. ADR)
RISK: LOW
2007 Company of the Year
Mainland China
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
$34.01 (1.1.07)
|
$88.35
|
$84.94
$29.25
|
+242% & +160%
|
See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company
of the Year article,
which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
our articles on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech’s
CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change
which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University
in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together
more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions
of the world. Dr. Shi was named one of TIME magazine's 2007
"Heroes of the Environment," on October 22, 2007, and the
share price has been a rocket ship ever since. Suntech will
supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to
Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world’s largest
solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy
a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. Dr. Shi is one of our
Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. Suntech picked up more clients at the 2007 Solar Conference
in Long Beach in August 2007, adding Irvine, Calif.'s Lumeta
and Los Gatos, Calif.-based Akeena Solar. In June 2007, Suntech
signed a 10 year supply deal for polysilicon from Hawaii's
Hoku Scientific. Institutional holdings of STP increased significantly
on November 22, 2007. High P/E Alert!
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$36.93
|
$40.00
$12.00
|
+78%
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$44.08 &
$43.18 (6.15.07)
|
$54.02
|
$73.06
$17.05
|
+22.5% & +25%
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
"Green
Hits the Mainstream,"
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles
on solar energy. This is a profitable solar energy company,
based out of China. The international management team is very
strong, as are sales, growth and profitability. Share price
jumped in early July 2007. Institutional holdings increased
significantly on 9.12.07, per MSN.com. Announced 2Q 2007 earnings
on 8.23.07. Net revenues increased 77% over the last quarter
and 160% over the last year to $75.3 million. Net income increased
51.4% over the last quarter and 540% over the last year to
$7.2 million.
|
UQM Technologies
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
UQM
|
$3.97
$3.10
(12.5.07)
|
$3.13
|
$5.48
$2.19
|
-21% &
flat
|
Read the
article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. UQM
Technologies, Inc. is a developer and manufacturer of power
dense, high efficiency electric motors, generators and power
electronic controllers for the automotive, aerospace, medical,
military and industrial markets. A major emphasis of the Company
is developing products for the alternative energy technologies
sector including propulsion systems for electric, hybrid electric,
plug-in hybrid electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, under-the-hood
power accessories and other vehicle auxiliaries and distributed
power generation applications. On November 5, 2007, received
a $1,046,500 cost-share contract from the California Energy
Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program and the
U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL) to develop an advanced grid-connect inverter under
its Advanced Power Electronics Interface (APEI) Initiative.
UQM’s share was $439,000 (42%).
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$3.02
on
12.14.07
|
$3.38
|
$10.30
$.35
|
-33% &
+12%
|
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature
interview with CEO
and Chairman Rob McEwen
in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it
a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman
and CEO, was awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006
by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star
Execs roundup." Motley Fool added U.S. Gold to their
"5 Low-Priced, High-Star Stocks" on 2.6.07. As more
press comes on board, the price should reflect the wooing
of Wall Street investors. (Now, if the company strikes gold,
we’ll all be geniuses…) UXG is "continuing their aggressive
drilling and exploration program at our top-priority targets:
Keystone, Limousine Butte, Gold Bar, and Tonkin." Read the
article above for more detailed info on this gold exploration
company. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, was appointed to the
Order of Canada, the country's highest civilian honor on July
3, 2007. Rob is one of 71 new appointments announced by Her
Excellency, the Right Honorable Michaelle Jean, Governor General
of Canada. U.S. Gold was added to the Russell 3000 on July
3, 2007.
On October
4, 2007 UXG announced results from its recently expanded exploration
portfolio in Nevada. At Tonkin, the best gold assay results
were 0.147 opt (ounces per ton) over 55 ft. (feet) (5.030
gpt (grams per tonne) over 16.8 m (meters)) and 0.115 opt
over 23.9 ft. (3.937 gpt over 7.3 m); and at our Limo Project
0.166 opt over 26 ft. (5.685 gpt over 7.9 m) and 0.052 opt
over 184.5 ft. (1.781 gpt over 56.2 m).
"Since
our last exploration release on June 12, 2007, assay results
from 44 holes totaling 35,964 feet of drilling have been received.
We haven't hit any home runs yet, but we are on base and it
is early in the game. We have advanced our understanding of
the geology and confirmed that we have encountered wide sections
of the right rock types to host a Carlin style gold deposit.
In addition, we are fortunate to have a large land holding
in a prospective area and a healthy treasury to fund our objective
of exploring aggressively for the next Cortez Hills discovery.
I must emphasize that exploration is the research and development
of the mining industry, and it is typically a frustratingly
slow and expensive process with low odds of success. The results
in this press release are positive and encouraging, but not
thrilling," said Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO.
Ann Carpenter,
President, Chief Operating Officer and Director of the Company,
resigned on 11.17.07. Rob McEwen, CEO AND Chairman, remains
in charge and will provide an update on the status of their
exploration in the near future, according to a spokesperson
at the company. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, increased his
beneficial ownership in the Company to 21.5% (20,687,427 shares)
from 19.8% (18,635,348 shares) on December 4, 2007, through
the exercise of Warrants of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation.
This additional investment in US Gold totals $3,903,107.
|
World Water & Power
VERY HIGH RISK
Trading off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$.59
|
$1.93
|
$2.52
$.22
|
+227%
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
Green
Hits the Mainstream,
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on
solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water
purification sector. CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor
Schwarzenegger to join him on the Governor’s tour of Canada,
during the California-Canada Conference on Clean Technologies
in Vancouver. Mr. Kelley was selected due to WWAT’s leading
role in building prominent solar energy projects in California,
including the recently-announced Fresno airport solar complex
as well as the largest solar-powered agricultural system in
the world and only self-sustaining water utility. Announced
on August 9, 2007, that they would be delivering 10 Mobile
MaxPure units for use in Darfur, Sudan. The portable solar
driven water pumping and purifying units, purchased for an
aggregate of $775,000, will provide approximately 30,000 gallons
of safe drinking water daily at each of 10 sites across the
ravaged desert region. Deliveries are scheduled for late September/October
with installation in October/November. Financial terms of
the contract were not disclosed. Financial results on 8.13.07:
Revenue for the second quarter was $2.2 million, compared
with $1.8 million reported in the second quarter of 2006.
Net loss for the second quarter of 2007 was $2.8 million,
or $(0.02) per share, compared to a loss of $2.0 million,
or $(0.01) per share, in the second quarter of 2006. The 2007
second quarter reflects an increase in marketing and sales
expense tied to the Company's aggressive growth goals. According
to Quentin T. Kelly, Chairman and CEO, "We have a $200 million
pipeline of potential contracts plus additional large, pending
projects. We believe WorldWater has the unique, proprietary
technology and resources to offer the most cost-efficient
solutions to a world demanding clean, renewable energy."
On May 24, 2007 WorldWater &
Solar Technologies Corp. announced the signing of a Strategic
Memorandum of Understanding that is expected to lead to the
expansion and increased efficiency of the marketing and sales
forces of both companies. WorldWater is an international solar
engineering and water management company with unique, high-powered
solar technology providing solutions to power and water supply
problems; Solargenix is in the business of maximizing patented
solar collection technology and other patents and know-how
to convert the sun’s light into a variety of temperature ranges
for thermal heat, with worldwide experience in energy and
environmental engineering, solar design and building construction.
The Companies expect to offer a full spectrum of solar power
capabilities for industrial, residential and commercial buildings
-- from lighting to heating, from driving motors and pumps
to hot water supply and HVAC. The companies believe that these
collaborative applications of their respective technologies
will contribute to increased marketing and sales with attendant
increased revenues, profitability and market shares for both
companies.
|
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
(Green ETF)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$28.72
|
$29.00
$14.97
|
+71%
|
See vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises
on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which
it may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year
on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply,
even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings
on 1.12.07: SunPower, OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion
Devices, SunTech, Ormat, Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic
Materials.
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$8.70
$2.85
(12.3.07)
|
$2.90
|
$9.94
$2.85
|
-67% &
+2%
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees." This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, and trades on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a war chest
of capital and a former SEC chairman as one of the senior
advisors. The company has had to delay its plans to re-list
on NASDAQ, due to current "market conditions and a $5
minimum stock price requirement." According to a press
release issued on Nov. 12, 2007, the Company does not expect
to re-list until the second quarter of 2008, at the earliest.
WisdomTree Trust launched the industry’s first small-cap dividend-weighted
emerging markets ETF on Halloween under the ticker symbol
DGS, and launched WisdomTree Emerging Markets High-Yielding
Fund (DEM) in July. Wisdom Tree also offers an ETF 401(k)
platform. Don’t underestimate this company. CEO Jono Steinberg
is married to Maria Bartiromo and both have strong relationships
on Wall Street, as do Chairman Michael Steinhardt and Senior
Investment Strategy Advisor Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, the
famous Wizard of Wharton.
|
Yahoo
Silicon
Valley, USA
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$27.71
$23.96
(12.26.07)
|
$23.96
|
$33.74
$22.27
|
-13.5%
&
flat
|
Announced
earnings on 1.29.08 at 5:00 p.m. ET. We just re-added Yahoo
to the list effective 6.15.07. Terry Semel is coaching (as
non-executive Chairman) and Jerry Wang is leading (as CEO),
but can Yahoo jumpstart their stalled potential? Why do we
believe them this time? eBay’s CEO Meg Whitman committed to
a large block of ads on Yahoo, which were previously the exclusive
domain of Google. 3Q earnings: "Moving forward, we are focused
on three big, multi-year objectives: to become the starting
point for the most consumers on the Internet; to be the 'must
buy' for the most advertisers; and to deliver open, industry-leading
platforms that attract the most developers," according
to Yahoo co-founder & CEO Jerry Yang. Revenues were $1,768
million for the third quarter of 2007, a 12% higher than the
same quarter last year. Net income for the third quarter of
2007 was $151 million or $0.11 per diluted share, roughly
equal to last year. Cash and short term investments equal
$2.7 billion. Corporate Buyback of company stock in the quarter
was $350 million. Since Yahoo has so much free content, it
could be the beneficiary of the writer’s strike, which is
turning network tv watchers into IT entertainment lovers.
|
Zoltec
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
ZOLT
|
$43.24
|
$42.82
|
$51.77
$18.34
|
flat
|
Read the
article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. Annual report was issued on 12.7.07.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07
with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains
on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in
on February 12, 2007. Intuit, deleted in June 2007, was a wash for
us – up and down. Macerich posted 150% gains between May 2003 (when
it was first featured) and September 2007 (when it was removed from
the list). Jet Blue was removed on December 5, 2007 with losses
of 24-45%. Still love the airline as a consumer, but oil prices
are killing the industry. Disney (+31%), National Health Investors
(flat), News Corp. (+33%), Opsware (+690%), Siri (mixed) and Time
Warner (flat performance) were all deleted on December 26, 2007.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News List on (12.26.07):
Disney
Dividends
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$32.82
|
$36.79
$30.61
|
+31%
|
CEO Bob Iger was one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. Announced earnings on 11.8.07. Diluted earnings per
share (EPS) for the year increased to $2.25, compared to $1.64
in the prior year.. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple
iTunes. Hmmm… The most successful animation film company meets
the most successful family media company meets the most successful
new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place
on Earth to us. The largest individual stockholder is Steve
Jobs. According to the annual report, CEO Bob Iger received
$22 million in compensation last year (not including stock
options). His pay included $2 million salary and a $15 million
cash bonus. The WGA contract was up on October 31, while the
SAG and DGA contracts expire in June 2008. Although the studios
have all ramped up production to stave off the effects of
a strike by the unions, this strike could certainly parch
the investor appetite in film companies, even if it doesn’t
cripple profits. Though many believe the WGA union spokesperson
has been too aggressive and the studios have been too recalcitrant
about cutting writers in on a fair piece of new media, the
strikers are out in full force and receiving a lot of support
from the stars who speak their lines on hit shows. With millions
of viewers turning to the Internet for their entertainment
these days, million of dollars lost and former television
writers and staff being let go, the economic fallout of the
strike will likely impact the media companies now and going
forward. And we still have the directors and actors to deal
with in July. Decided to cut out with profits, and weight
toward Internet media giants, like Google, eBay and Yahoo
picking up the former network tv lovers.
|
National Health Investors
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
NHI
|
$29.89
|
$30.63
|
$35.54
$25.78
|
Flat
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article and accompanying stock report card. This
is a company that I featured in the April 2004 ezine at, believe
it or not, $29.89. There are rumors of a merger. We’ll watch
this in the next few months to see if the merger comes to
fruition and/or if the Santa Rally pushes up the stock. While
National Health Investors is in real estate, they are in the
niche market of providing long term housing for the elderly
– a large growing marketplace, with baby boomer money. We
weighed in on the real estate decline and took this off the
list effective December 26, 2007.
|
News Corp.
Vol. 2, iss. 10
Dividends!
RISK: LOW
MySpace: 2006 Company of the
Year
|
No
|
NWS.A
|
$15.88
|
$21.07
|
$25.40
$18.18
|
+33%
|
Owns Fox TV and film studios, MySpace,
and print publications. Sold DirecTV. News Corp. has completed
$2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last
June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion.
DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical
hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss
Sunshine, Napoleon Dynamite, Die Hard and The Simpsons Movie.
MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson were
our Executives
of the Year in 2006.
Read the article in vol. 3, iss. 1. Spam issues have lead
California teens to jump over to FaceBook. If Myspace were
led by less capable, passionate executives, I’d be plenty
worried right now. We’ll monitor, but with the addition of
video and the strong music fan base, it’s hard to imagine
MySpace imploding. According to Gabe, 17, from Santa Monica,
"I use Facebook more. It’s become the easier thing. MySpace
has been corrupted by aliens – all of these hackers who send
people adverts." The WGA contract was up on October 31,
and the writers began striking on Monday, November 5, 2007.
The SAG and DGA contracts expire in June 2008. Although the
studios have all ramped up production to stave off the effects
of a strike by the unions, a strike could certainly parch
the investor appetite in film companies, even if it doesn’t
cripple profits. Many believe the studios have been too recalcitrant
about cutting writers in on a fair piece of new media, the
strikers are out in full force and receiving a lot of support
from the stars who speak their lines on hit shows. With millions
of viewers turning to the Internet for their entertainment
these days, million of dollars lost and former television
writers and staff being let go, the economic fallout of the
strike will likely impact the media companies now and going
forward. And we still have the directors and actors to deal
with in July. Decided to cut out with profits, and weight
toward Internet media giants, like Google, eBay and Yahoo
picking up the former network tv lovers.
|
Opsware
RISK: LOW
2004 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80 (12.15.02)
|
$14.24
|
$14.25
$6.25
|
+690%
|
Hewlett-Packard announced that
they would be acquiring Opsware for $14.25/share on 7.23.07!
Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology Fast
50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06. Cisco distributes
Opsware’s products worldwide. Opsware automates the complete
IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically discover, provision,
patch, configure, secure, change, scale, audit, recover, consolidate,
migrate, and reallocate servers, network devices and applications.
Over 350 of the world's largest companies, outsourcers and
government agencies use Opsware to deliver this new, automated
model of IT. Read the 2004
Company
of the Year article
in vol. 1, iss. 44. Surpassed $100 million in revenue for
full year 2006 ($101.7 million), up 67% over the prior year!
(Don’t buy now. The price won’t get above $14.25, as that
is the acquisition price.)
|
Sirius
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$3.85
$2.90 (6.1.07)
|
$3.23
|
$4.84
$2.72
|
-16% & +11%
|
Sirius and XM Satellite Radio issued
a joint press release on February 20, 2007 saying that they
will combine the companies. Mel Karmazin remains CEO of the
combined company, while Gary Parsons, the CEO of XM-SR, will
become the Chairman. The merger is being challenged in Congress.
This story is developing and we will keep you posted. In the
meantime, Sirius has launched backseat tv on Chrysler cars
beginning in 2008, and is a factory installed option for Land
Rovers and Mini hard tops. Institutional holdings of SIRI
increased significantly on 11.22.07. Exceeded analyst earnings
estimates for second straight quarter on 10.31.07. Shares
rocketed on 11.30.07, after Bear Stearns analyst Robert Pek
said that the Justice Department's junior staffers will attempt
to block the deal, but senior members will likely rule in
favor of the merger allowing Sirius to buy out its larger
counterpart, XM. Competition is too tight and management is
focused on the acquisition story more than the great products
story. Impact of writer’s strike is not yet known, but there
are many shows, like Howard Stern’s show, with writers on
them.
|
Time-Warner
(owns AOL)
Dividends!
RISK: Low
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$16.90
|
$23.15
$15.70
|
flat
|
See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay’s
Skype Outpaces News Corp.’s MySpace" for a report
card that features Time-Warner. TWX’s The Departed
won Best Picture of the Year! AOL and Time-Warner have finally
figured out how to work together. Effective November 5, 2007,
Former Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons has stepped down
as CEO, but will remain chairman. Jeffrey Bewkes is the new
CEO. From 2002-2005, Mr. Bewkes was chairman of the Time Warner
entertainment and networks grop, and in 2006, he became President
and COO, overseeing all of the divisions at Time Warner. Prior
to his work at the corporate headquarters, he was the CEO
of HBO. Under his leadership, HBO became the world's most
profitable TV network, while securing its reputation for critically
acclaimed original programming, movies, documentaries, concerts
and sports, as well as leadership in new technologies such
as HBO On Demand. Reported 3Q earnings on Nov. 7, 2007.
Revenues are up 9% from $10.7 billion last year to $11.7 billion
this year, operating income is up 29% to $2.1 billion from
$1.6 billion. Free cash flow is $4 billion. Net debt is $35.3
billion, increasing $1.9 billion from the end of 2006 due
to the stock repurchase program. Company has completed $2.2
billion of an announced $5 billion stock repurchase program,
and is no track to complete ½ of the buyback by the end of
2007. The WGA contract was up on October 31, while the SAG
and DGA contracts expire in June 2008. Many believe the studios
have been too recalcitrant about cutting writers in on a fair
piece of new media. The strikers are out in full force and
receiving a lot of support from the stars who speak their
lines on hit shows. With millions of viewers turning to the
Internet for their entertainment these days, million of dollars
lost and former television writers and staff being let go,
the economic fallout of the strike will likely impact the
media companies now and going forward. And we still have the
directors and actors to deal with in July. Decided to cut
out, and weight toward Internet media giants, like Google,
eBay and Yahoo picking up the former network tv lovers.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some
of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the
Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Recent
Additions (added on 12.05.07):
Emcore
International
Rectifier
Recent
Deletions:
Advanced
Micro Devices on 12.05.07
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
12.26.07
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
Boston Properties
|
No
|
BXP
|
$101.24
|
$101.81
|
$133.02
$91.25
|
flat
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article. Boston Properties looks great. Think that
the office building REITs may begin to come under pressure
sometime in 2008. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital spending,
productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs of the
business economy, which are the customers of Boston Properties.
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$8.74
|
$14.98
|
$14.98
$3.84
|
+49%
|
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE), is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Missed earnings estimates
on 12.18.07.
|
General Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$39.90
|
$37.55
|
$41.16
$32.20
|
-6%
|
See the article, "Green
San Jose Company," in vol. 4, iss. 8.
|
General Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$29.05
(12.3)
|
$26.52
|
$43.20
$24.52
|
-9%
|
See the article "Faded
Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. Almost every
risk factor which GM listed in the annual report has occurred
– prices for parts are higher due to the metals commodity
crunch and gas prices have turned consumers to gas efficient
vehicles. GM still has an enormous overhead that impedes its
ability to be profitable in the global landscape. Investors
got excited late Sept. 2007 about a tentative deal with the
United Auto Workers Union, however, expenses are still too
high and the cars are still too unpopular. I’ve not highlighted
this company because the CEO is doing a spectacular job in
an awfully challenging landscape. Want to check out the focus
on new products, including the electric car, and will be doing
a full report soon. Not a short, but certainly not a company
that one would expect to be turned around overnight.
|
International Rectifier
|
No
|
IRF
|
$32.68
|
$34.05
|
$44.36
$30.47
|
+4%
|
International Rectifier Corporation
is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power management
product devices, which use power semiconductors. The Company's
products are used in a variety of end applications, including
computers, communications networking, consumer electronics,
energy-efficient appliances, lighting, satellites, launch
vehicles, aircraft and automotive diesel injection.
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$82.49
|
$74.11
|
$103.59
$71.22
|
-10%
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, the signs
were pointing toward a cooling off in retail shopping center
REITs, so we removed the company from our Hot News list (meaning
that we’re capping the performance at 150% gains). There is
a good chance that the Santa Rally will enthrall investors,
and push the MAC price up, even though it is in the decidedly
unpopular REITs industry. We’ll look to putting MAC on the
Cooling Off list in January 2008, or if interim news warrant
it earlier.
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$36.61
|
$36.81
$21.45
|
+30%
|
World’s largest software company.
$31 billion in cash. Launched Zune on Nov. 14, 2006 and Vista
earlier this year. New products have not received "buzz"
or outstanding sales. Great blue chip for your long term portfolio
because with the war chest and talent at MSFT, even this year’s
assembly line of flops shouldn’t bring the company down, although
it may bring out the firing rod. Will pressure come down on
Steve Ballmer, CEO? Trading near the 52-week high, so waiting
for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Wells
Fargo
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 12.26.07
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$38.80
|
$70.57
$26.38
|
-36% &
-44%
|
Spent $1 billion on accounting
fees related to the accounting scandal. Investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billion…. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn’t
bode well for FNM. According to the AP, "Maintaining
strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie
Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the
very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard
and Poor’s has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae. December
14 annual meeting for shareholders will be held at 10:00 a.m.,
EST, at the Hilton Washington in Washington DC. Fannie Mae
is chartered, but not funded or guaranteed, by the U.S. government.
It’s funded completely with private capital, and is one of
the top holdings in some of the most popular mutual funds.
i.e. you might own it. 3rd quarter net income loss
was $1.5 billion. FNM expects that the housing crunch and
credit tightening will continue to adversely impact their
financial results in 2007 and 2008, according to the 3rd
quarter earnings report.
|
KB Home
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$23.31
|
$56.08
$23.79
|
-60%
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout
sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices,
rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and
rising inventory. On June 28, 2007, KBH reported a loss from
continuing operations of $174.2 million or $2.26 per diluted
share in the second quarter of 2007, largely due to a pretax,
non-cash charge of $308.2 million related to inventory and
joint venture impairments and the abandonment of land option
contracts. In the second quarter of 2006, the Company generated
income from continuing operations of $184.4 million or $2.20
per diluted share. Revenues totaled $1.41 billion in the second
quarter of 2007, down from $2.20 billion in the year-earlier
quarter, due to a decline in housing revenues that was partly
offset by an increase in land sale revenues.
|
Novastar Financial
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
NFI
|
$28.04 &
$36.53 (6.15.07)
|
$3.42
|
$526.08
$1.12
|
-88% &
-90%
|
See the article (Sub)
Prime Time in
the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5, when we warned everyone
should get out of subprime mortgage lenders. On July 27, 2007,
Novastar announced a reverse stock split. As a result of the
reverse stock split, every four shares of common stock were
changed into one share of common stock. Scott Hartman, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, Chief Financial
Officer Gregory Metz and General Counsel Jeff Ayers are leaving
the company, effective Jan. 3, 2008. Lance Anderson, the current
chief operating officer and president, was elected by the
board to replace Hartman. In danger of being delisted by the
NYSE due to the share price falling beneath $5.00/share. Has
laid off 100s of employees, sold off most of its subprime
loans and closed doors on most of its offices. What’s left
to do? The paperwork? Don’t be fooled. Lance Anderson may
be the only guy on the planet who would take this job. The
former CEO and Chairman is reportedly getting $2.1 million
in cash for leaving, according to BizJournal.
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$21.03
|
$35.64
$18.85
|
-44%
|
Robert Toll, CEO, and brother Bruce
Toll have been on an insider selling spree, totaling hundreds
of millions, since May 2005 (source: MoneyCentral.Msn.com).
Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and
Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on
REITs as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities
action complaint (but not a confirmed investigation), from
June 2007, alleging that Toll Brothers "and one or more
members of its senior management, violated federal securities
laws by issuing various materially false and misleading statements
that had the effect of artificially inflating the market price
of the Company's securities and causing Class members to overpay
for the securities." Reported a loss of $81.8 million,
or 52 cents per share, in its fiscal fourth quarter, compared
with net income of $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, a year
ago. According to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert
Toll, "By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging
of the 40 years that Toll Brothers has been in business. 1974
was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one
year." You can access the call on their website at: www.tollbrothers.com.
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Wells
Fargo
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Yes
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WFC
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$31.97
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$31.26
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$37.99
$29.44
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-2%
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See Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression, in vol. 4, iss. 12. The 3Q 2007
earnings release was issued on 10.16.07. Look for the 4Q report
in the middle of January. (2006 was released on 1.16.07.)
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The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06:
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). LifeCell was removed
on 7.2.07 with -4.5% overall performance. (The cooling off list
anticipates that a company will lose share price value.) Google
was added on 7.16.07 and then removed on 8.1.07 with losses of -6.7%.
General Motors was removed on 10.01.07 with mixed performance.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Don’t
Miss the Get Rich and EnRich Retreat featuring Natalie Pace, Michael
Bernard Beckwith and Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith on January 2-5, 2008.
You must be it, in order to do it. Experience the rich life with
us and change your life now and forever.
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats,
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See below for
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that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Living
the Rich Life Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Wednesday,
January 2-5, 2008
Attend
this 4-day beachfront retreat and create a new Living the Rich
Life plan, learn Natalie's trade-marked 3-ingredient recipe
for cooking up profits and attend Reverend Michael Bernard Beckwith's
Agape Sanctuary! Email Heather@NataliePace. |
Transformative,
Inspiring New Year’s Evening with Michael Bernard Beckwith, Dr.
Rickie Byars Beckwith and Natalie Pace. Admission: FREE!
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Martin
Luther King, Jr. Auditorium,
located at the Santa Monica Public Library (Main branch). 601 Santa
Monica Boulevard, Santa Monica, CA 90401.
(310) 458-8600
Seating is first come, first served and limited to just 140.
Evening begins with a meditation at 6:30 p.m. and ends at 9:00 p.m.
Mid-Month
Update: Hot News on Cool Stocks
Monday, January 14th, 2008
The
mid-month update of the hot news on cool stocks report will be published
on or before 5:00 p.m. PT. Check online before noon, just in case
we get it out early!
Wagner's
Tristan und Isolde at the Los Angeles Opera
Saturday, January 19th, 2008
David
Hockney designs. Bold and fanciful, eye dazzling, creating a "tone
of antic freshness, of fairy-tale legend filtered through adult
(and adulterous) fantasy, according to the NY Times.
5th
WSF World Spirit Forum: Zurich, Switzerland
Sunday, January 20th, 2008
WSF
hosts spiritual and religious and political and social activists
to gather and develop a plan for a unified humanity with equity
and solutions for global concerns.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday, January 29-30, 2008
The
Federal Reserve Board governors meet to determine whether inflation
is more of a factor than the housing pullback and subprime defaults.
Will the Feds keep the rate where it is, raise it or lower it?
Invent
Your Future Conference, Silicon Valley, CA
Tuesday, February 26th, 2008
Top speakers Sam Horn, Peggy Klaus, Maggie Neale and Liz Fetter
address key topics like risk-taking, advanced negotiations and strategy...plus,
hone your decision-making skills in the Business Challenge and enjoy
non-stop networking.
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